I suspect that the coming week will be good to the bears given that we are the top of the current rising SPX channel, but I was saying on Friday morning that I was doubtful about a significant fall on opex Friday, and that Mondays had also been very unkind to bears lately.

I didn’t see anything to change my opinion on Friday, and still have serious doubts about downside on Monday, particularly as there seems to be an IHS building on SPX, and the obvious point for the head to finish is at about 1120.

Here’s the SPX daily chart with trendlines and support / resistance levels:

The possible IHS seems to be forming along the blue dotted trendline, and if that continues, we will break strong resistance at the Friday HOD and touch that trendline again to finish forming the head.

On the SPX 60 min chart, we are crawling up the underside of the upper trendline of the rising channel since the February 5th low:

There are some interesting points to note on this chart. There is very definite negative divergence on RSI and MACD, and also, less importantly, on the stochs. What is more interesting on the stochs is the small broadening wedges that have formed since SPX first hit the top of that channel.  If these don’t break quickly on Monday, then it would be reasonable to infer likely initial weakness followed by a fresh push over the Friday HOD. The obvious target would be the blue dotted trendline which should be in the 1120 – 1122 area.

There is some support for this from the EURUSD action as it seems to be midway from the bottom to the top of a recent shallowly declining channel. This could signal a move back up over 1.37 on Monday:

Equally however, it could be that the breakout from that broadening descending wedge we saw last week was a false breakout, and that EURUSD will turn down at 1.361, but more short-term upside does look very possible.

Hey Hobsters!! All day long  at OBB I heard everyone worried that this might be a new bull run, that even the most tireless bear was going bullish, I knew most of the day that this was a bull trap and a dollar bear trap.

I emailed Red about it at noon and he was NOT buying it. At 2:45 or so I loaded up on SPY puts march 110s for 2.09 and felt quite comfortable and knew that it might not the the lowest price, but I held off all week buying any puts until 2:45 pm today.

Then we heard the sound heard round the world “FED raising interest rates” hint no more free thug money for the gangsta banksta’s. The dollar blew higher (yet to be squeezed) and futs started to sink. Now it could be that they push it around (most likely) but I am looking for around 1072 tomorrow  sometime. For the next week I am looking for a retest of 1040.75. Then lower to 1020.

They really played the bulls like a charm today and didn’t announce the rate hike till the futs were closed. (Thugs) Right on time so they could see to the little guy and dump all over him.

here is a chart of the /ES after hours

Good luck tomorrow all and watch for stronger DXY and lower equities!! Love Anna

EURUSD has now broken the broadening descending wedge that had confined it for the last three weeks and is returning to the top of the declining channel:

Given that this channel was already steep enough to bring EUR to parity with USD within six to eight months, it always seemed more than likely than not that that when this channel ultimately breaks, it will break to the upside. The channel is declining by about half a cent per week, so if we reach the top of the channel at the end of next week, the target would be between 1.395 and 1.40.

As well as the broken and now resolving wedge we also have clear IHS patterns on both RSI and MACD. These generally play out as you can see from the others I have marked.

In the short term the stochs look toppy and we may well see a retracement. An obvious target for that would be the broken wedge trendline at between 1.37 and 1.371.

The SPX is also looking toppy on the 60min and I have marked in a possible new channel and significant interior trendline that both suggest that we may soon fall back to the bottom trendline of that channel from the circa 1100 level:

If we take a day or two to do that, then we may well fall back to test the strong resistance now turned support level at 1080, though if it happens faster, we could still fill Tuesday’s opening gap at the 1075.51 level.

Now there is some talk that we might be starting a new major wave up on SPX, which would be wave 5 of a bull market sequence. I don’t buy it. Quite apart from the doubtful economic and earnings prospects, and the increasingly poor medium term outlook for the Euro, the wave 4 looks rather small to me for a wave 4 retracement, and I am looking at many patterns that look as though they have much more downside coming.

It is worth noting though that if this is a bull market five wave sequence, then that wave 4 did make a perfect 38.2% fib retracement of wave 3 since July, and if that EURUSD channel breaks to the upside I may have to reconsider my view, but in the interim this just looks like a wave 2 retracement to me with an obvious target at 1110 for the 61.8% fib retracement.

It is well worth remembering however that a wave 2 can and often does retrace most of wave 1, the start of the EURUSD decline being a classic example. SPX could go considerably higher than 1110, and Fujisan was putting forward a compelling scenario suggesting 1130 last weekend at slope which is well worth a look IMO.

I will be next shorting SPX again seriously only when EURUSD reaches the top of the declining channel, or when it becomes clear that it won’t reach it.

Another interesting chart that is well worth a look is gold:

Gold is in a strong declining channel and is rising fast towards the channel top, and also the broken neckline of a sloping H&S indicating to the 960 level. The upswing target is about 1140, and that should see gold start back towards the bottom of the channel. It should reach it on the next EURUSD push upwards and it looks a good short from there.

Update trying to get disqus to update the comment on (don’t know why it’s not enabled yet. )

hey gang I am happy to say that HOB is back up and running and full force.  Feel free to disqus your thoughts on Market and more. I am asking that you all help keep it going by contributing to “my cause” that helps keep HOB going. The expenses will be too great for me to bear alone. I will be on OBB as well but have been asked so much that I wanted to help those that might not be able to afford 100$ a month, but could contribute a small amount every month.

I will do daily market analysis and go back to our old disqus layout.

Now on to this week at OPX

Hi gang, wow last week was a twist turning, stomache grinder whipsaw week, now if you are a day trader only you love this, but the majority of us are swing traders and only day trade to adjust or hedge.Greece is bailed out Greece is not bailed out, good news bad news ect ect ect….

Now what do I see for next week. Well on Friday I told everyone in chat room to not go short into the weekend and most likely the end of day wouldbe flat to slightly up, well 3:59 they ran the indexes on a huge rush of volume and after hours actually ended up. That pretty much left us a flat week. But allot of bears got the buns cooked.

At this point my feeling is we are heading towards the 61.8% retracement from the low of 1040.75 to the highs of 1150. that would put us about110.34 on Spy and 1105 on Spx. (give or take point or two) I have a  great chart that should show where we could gap up on Tuesday. I will
have to add link as the editor does not let me find my images!!

That would fill the gap down and also be @ 61.8 Fib RL. After that most likely Wednesday Thursday chop up and down and end around 108 on Friday
OPX.

http://content.screencast.com/ users/Annamall2/folders/Jing/ media/45340aff-75b5-48e4-b33e- 21a7935bb392/00000057.png

Now on the other hand there is serious resistance @ 1080 and its quite possible any really bad news and we could gap right down on Tuesday.

So this week please hedge yourself if your’e bearish and vice versa. I am in March Bear Spreads hedged with SPY March Calls (god please don’t tell me no one in straight February options and if you’re in Feb spreads close them this week.

We are very close to our P3 though, my guess is a week from Monday or that week.

Now there is always a possibility that something happens over the weekend. And we just head straight down, but expect allot of the same Whippy Whip saw.

WFMI earning are out this week a fun one to trade. So I will be on hunt for that!

love Anna

Hi Gang,

Can you say up 40% this week! …:)))

Things are working slowly…but coming along at OBB  I want you to know we will have disqus forum for swing traders, and the chat room for more day traders.

We have a live feed for those active traders and I will post graphs trades on blog, so no worries! You will also be notified by email for each trade.

So no fear we will cover you all the way around!

We had a smoking week and everyone made so much $$$$$ come on over and you will love it

Hey gang,

I will be in the Traders Blog on OBB until further notice, not the chat part

I feel that we have not properly introduced everyone to OBB and I take full responsibility for it, so please, go easy on your lovely host! That said, I want to take a minute to introduce you to OBB and give a bit clearer picture of how we envision the future. To begin we have this pretty little picture:

Now that you’re probably more confused than before, let’s break OBB down. Our vision is OBB representing the key 3 fundamental aspects:

Education- this consists of the OBB Education Series, which will help beginners learn the basics and intermediate traders review. The series includes interactive quizzes to test your knowledge and an expanding series of homework assignments. We recommend this content for the “paint drying” days in the market.

Community- this circle represents the OBB Live! Trader’s Community. Our goal is to create the largest, most in-depth community of option traders from all corners of the world. We have taken the time to integrate many of the usual social networking aspects into this part of the site. It also features a Community Blog where any member can post their market charts, thoughts, or whatever else is on their mind (within reason of course).

Experience- The OBB Experience! platform essentially utilizes all of the qualities Anna brings to the table. This is a subscription-based area of the web site that will offer access to Anna’s new $10k portfolio, trade ideas, watch lists, etc. within her blog as well as access to Anna during market hours via live chat.
This service will cost $100/month and give you full access. However, until we have all the kinks worked out of the system and everything is running smooth the Anna has graciously agreed to keep her services free.

I hope this somewhat helps to clear up the confusion that I again take full responsibility for. If you have any questions, feel free to email me at info@optionsblackboard.com and I’ll get back to you as soon as possible.

UPDATE TO GO TO MY DIRECT BLOG GO TO OBB = OBB EXPERIENCE = ANNA’S TRADE BLOG

Gang I am so stoked about Optionsblackboard.com We have a groundbreaking site here, we are a social network, blog, chat, private time with Anna, that is going to rock the trading world. We are self contained so no disqus problems and lots of really cool features.

Register and get comfy and you will be so rocked!  My partner and I are soft launching Monday and everything will have come kinks the first few weeks so bear (no pun intended) with us. To register just click on my picture banner on RHS of page and there you go!

Hotoptionbabe.com will be up for a limited time, but soon will completely meld in with OBB, so you might as well get all warm and comfy there. There are some terrific old faces (old as in experience and smart) and some brand new ones to be part of the community. If you want a be in my private back room with me and make some crazy coin, we will have all kinds of one one help and a live trading account that will follow with me. Forex is coming too, but I will discussing that as well.

Ok off to work out some kinks, and we can really make some great $ next week, so get ready

Working on a new post for OBB on markets, commodities and Apple

Hey gang,

This won’t be a long post as I am totally spent today, trading blogging and phone calls, but I did call for Google short on Sunday and yes it worked out to be technically correct. I do expect Google and Bidu to lead down the NQ tomorrow along with another down day for equites.

The Dollar ended the day up again and I do expect the strength to continue for a while longer.

I am doing a soft launch of OBB live on Monday morning the sub will be free for 2 weeks, so you can get comfy. Now get this …NO DISQUS!!!  We have our own internal server so no more drops or slow connections YEAH That will not happen. It has several different kinds of communities. I just love it, will I be migrating there for the most part, yes, but I will keep abreast of things here, but  the live trades and outlooks will be there first.  I know you will love it as I do.

There is no charge to be on the community part. And the live trading will be free for the 2 weeks as I mentioned. So here’s to another great day and love to you all!

Hey gang

Another whippy day, but fun. We retraced a full 50% off of the lows of the day, so tomorrow will be up to GS pretty much and Google on Thursday.

Here is an iron Condor on Google I am looking at (this is for you Cuban Jim)

Looks like we are right where were,  just a bit lower for the week, now what? Well GS comes out before the bell tomorrow and my bet is they beat and gap but ultimately gain will fade. (like every other company has done so far)

Here is a chart why I bailed

They bounced right at double bottom and the RL low

Ebay is out and looks to be another pop and drop. So that would be good for NQ bears

Well I am ready for GS to announce but also looking for Google on Thursday and AMD

Hey Hobsters

Well as I wrote on Sunday I expected IBM to beat but sell off as INTC did. The stock is short term due for a retracement and I went full on short this afternoon just before the bell. FWIW I expect Google to perform the same way.  I expect a 23.6 to 38.2 retracement at the least. which shows up on the chart below.

Well we had a rally on a senate seat race that no one knows the results! WTF all I can say is rally on the rumor and even if it turns out to be true, sell on the news either way a win win for us.

Here is another stock to watch for this week. AMD, it is up from 3.00 to 9.00 from the March Lows.. earnings are out on Thursday AH, here is my gem to you and that’s to do a bearish spread or bull put spread on it. The I.V. is already too high to buy straight options unless you go deep in the money, but check the I.V as you don’t want to get a crush (at least on AMD)

I am still short EUR/USD  and expect further upside in the $DXY tomorrow. We retraced from the highs of today, but IMHO that is a healthy sign of further upside.

What will happen to the SPX, we now have a triple top at best the upside is just so limited and that’s why I cannot be a bull here, even with the market manipulation that goes on.  I will just have to pick stocks carefully and have small positions. I still have my FEB spy puts, but I cannot hold they beyond this week.

Good night to all