What is Current PainTM?
In the option market, wealth transfer between option buyers and sellers is a zero-sum game. On option expiration days, underlying stock prices often show strange movements and bring heavy losses to option buyers. In the trading community, it is widely believed that option sellers, usually institutional traders, manipulate the stock prices and make options that they sold worthless. Current PainTM is an estimation for this option-seller price manipulation target based on options sold since last option expiration date. At this price, those recently-sold options have the lowest total market value at expiration. Option writers who sold options in the last month reap the most reward and option buyers suffer maximum losses.

What is the Difference between Current PainTM and Option Pain?
Option Pain is calculated based on all outstanding options in the market; including those options that were sold from an earlier time (up to 2.5 years). Options written in the past are less relevant to the current market condition. Option Pain, derived from all outstanding options, could be quite different from manipulators’ real price target.
Current PainTM estimates option-seller manipulation target by considering only the option-selling group’s recent activities and it reflects the latest intention of those potential price manipulators. Compared to Option Pain, Current PainTM could be a more accurate estimation of the stock manipulator’s price target since it excludes options sold way in the past.

Can You Give An Example of How Current PainTM Works Better Than Option Pain?
We have actually observed many of such examples since 2006, when we first constructed Current PainTM. We will show here below a very impressive case: GOOG on May 2008 expiration. On Friday, May 16, 2008, Option Pain for GOOG was $550 and Current PainTM was $580. At 4:00pm ET, Google stock actually closed at $580.07, $0.07 above Current PainTM and $30.07 above Option Pain!
The following are original Option Pain and Current PainTM charts of May 16, 2008. The Current PainTM Chart (with yellow background) indicated $580 would be the best for the option writers. On the Option Pain Chart (with blue background), the estimated price manipulation target was $550. We believe that there will be many, many more interest cases for you to discover.