Hi everyone

I hope you’re having an excellent weekend! It’s sunny gorgeous and so nice here in Florida. I had a great weekend and am rested, refreshed and ready to go for Monday.

Now what is going on here and what can happen going forward.  Now Friday we know what happened, the jobs number came in better than expected from the BS that was put out all week about the snow and cold keeping folks from going into work. Now that was a total set up by the government to low ball the expectations so when the number came out, it sounded so good! Well the truth is what they didn’t tell you is that if a person showed up at work for an hour the whole month they counted the person as employed.   So to say it was shewed is an understatement!!!

They are propping up this market with the retail trader to wait for the kill. (institutions) They are waiting till the last schmoe gets bullish and runs the tape up to hit the nuclear sell button!  There was no volume on Friday less than 2 millions shares on the SPYs. That means only the retail guy bought the jobs numbers. There is a double top @ 115 on the SPY and `1150 on the SPX. If they can’t push it past 1144 on SPX in short order that is considered extremely bearish.
BTW there the SPX is overbought on the 1, 5, 10, 15 , 30, 60 daily, weekly charts,  check out your stochastics on the charts, can they stay up there, no not indefinitely some profit taking will come in even if it’s short term.
There is even a possibility that the tape will turn over Monday.  I do know that we are close to correction coming and once that happens I will happily go long, but to do that up here at these levels is just too hard to do. I can go long on specific stocks, I will not do so on the indexes.

However on the other side of the coin you can see if we do NOT reject 1150 and go down hard, should we go to 1148 -1152 and go sideways for a bit, the there is a nice inverse  H&S that could be forming and we could go on up to 1180 on the SPX  …so keep an eye on the charts for that.

Now here is chart on the SPX

Now the reason I am leaning towards scenario #1 is because of where the $VIX is at. With the VIX this low, it is telling me that a sell off is imminent.  But that could changed if the tape continues sideways with only a slight sell off. Being a trader you have to keep in mind all the different things that could play out. Either way there is some kind of down move coming shortly, I have in mind we could even see 1100 this week by weeks end.

Now here is chart of the VIX

The VIX is close to a double bottom @ 16.26 and boy is that complacent! So it’s do or die now for the bulls to hit the sell button and for the bears to grab a piece of the pie!  (or salmon in their case) if not the bull are going to consolidate sideways and run up to newer highs next stop 1180 then possibly 1228.

So this week should be quite interesting

Also this OPX is quadruple witching so it will be even more crazy then usual.

GLTA this week

Hi Hobsters, sorry it has been a bit since I posted, I am working feverorishly on OBB most of my time, but also would like to at least keep this forum for those of you who are both bullish and bearish and net neutral and want to make $ on both sides.

For the next few day I expect nothing but chop chop and more chop, we could make one last final high to 1127.00 or Ms Market might just fool us and turn quickly to catch shorts off guard.

What am I do well I am net short with a long hedge or two, to get the realtime trade of course those are on OBB.

Petsmart a store close to my own heart is out after the bell and should be a big mover. I do have a trade on it of course.

Here is an updated chart of the SPY

So tread light and carry a big bat IMHO they will try to retest the 1122.75 and possibly grab that 1127 today.  Good Luck to all!

Hey everyone, I am rested relaxed and ready to go this week. Now what is in store for us this week. Well it’s a toss up there is really nothing to bring us down, so we need to keep a mix of different positions and be light on our feet. I do expect at this point we might see 1150.75 before we see 1020.

Should we open up weak tonight we could trade down to 1075 area, but that doesn’t seem to be in the cards. On any weakness this week I will close I will close most spy puts unless I see major weakness. (which could happen) it’s all about the $ and if Ben and Company are to hint at a rate increase sooner than later, or even raise interest rates (although the probability of that is next to none) their language will be key! !Any strength in the dollar most likely will be weak for equities.

Personally I think we chop around till traders see what Ben & Company come up with this week.

Now here is a chart of where we are in the EUR/dollar as of now

on the buy side

FAST
GRMN
HMC
NVDA

on the sell side

DZZ
GAP
IEF

Plan on a Monday that is most likely a whole lotta nothing until the FOMC minutes are out love peace

Hey Hobsters!! All day long  at OBB I heard everyone worried that this might be a new bull run, that even the most tireless bear was going bullish, I knew most of the day that this was a bull trap and a dollar bear trap.

I emailed Red about it at noon and he was NOT buying it. At 2:45 or so I loaded up on SPY puts march 110s for 2.09 and felt quite comfortable and knew that it might not the the lowest price, but I held off all week buying any puts until 2:45 pm today.

Then we heard the sound heard round the world “FED raising interest rates” hint no more free thug money for the gangsta banksta’s. The dollar blew higher (yet to be squeezed) and futs started to sink. Now it could be that they push it around (most likely) but I am looking for around 1072 tomorrow  sometime. For the next week I am looking for a retest of 1040.75. Then lower to 1020.

They really played the bulls like a charm today and didn’t announce the rate hike till the futs were closed. (Thugs) Right on time so they could see to the little guy and dump all over him.

here is a chart of the /ES after hours

Good luck tomorrow all and watch for stronger DXY and lower equities!! Love Anna

Update trying to get disqus to update the comment on (don’t know why it’s not enabled yet. )

hey gang I am happy to say that HOB is back up and running and full force.  Feel free to disqus your thoughts on Market and more. I am asking that you all help keep it going by contributing to “my cause” that helps keep HOB going. The expenses will be too great for me to bear alone. I will be on OBB as well but have been asked so much that I wanted to help those that might not be able to afford 100$ a month, but could contribute a small amount every month.

I will do daily market analysis and go back to our old disqus layout.

Now on to this week at OPX

Hi gang, wow last week was a twist turning, stomache grinder whipsaw week, now if you are a day trader only you love this, but the majority of us are swing traders and only day trade to adjust or hedge.Greece is bailed out Greece is not bailed out, good news bad news ect ect ect….

Now what do I see for next week. Well on Friday I told everyone in chat room to not go short into the weekend and most likely the end of day wouldbe flat to slightly up, well 3:59 they ran the indexes on a huge rush of volume and after hours actually ended up. That pretty much left us a flat week. But allot of bears got the buns cooked.

At this point my feeling is we are heading towards the 61.8% retracement from the low of 1040.75 to the highs of 1150. that would put us about110.34 on Spy and 1105 on Spx. (give or take point or two) I have a  great chart that should show where we could gap up on Tuesday. I will
have to add link as the editor does not let me find my images!!

That would fill the gap down and also be @ 61.8 Fib RL. After that most likely Wednesday Thursday chop up and down and end around 108 on Friday
OPX.

http://content.screencast.com/ users/Annamall2/folders/Jing/ media/45340aff-75b5-48e4-b33e- 21a7935bb392/00000057.png

Now on the other hand there is serious resistance @ 1080 and its quite possible any really bad news and we could gap right down on Tuesday.

So this week please hedge yourself if your’e bearish and vice versa. I am in March Bear Spreads hedged with SPY March Calls (god please don’t tell me no one in straight February options and if you’re in Feb spreads close them this week.

We are very close to our P3 though, my guess is a week from Monday or that week.

Now there is always a possibility that something happens over the weekend. And we just head straight down, but expect allot of the same Whippy Whip saw.

WFMI earning are out this week a fun one to trade. So I will be on hunt for that!

love Anna

Hey gang

Another whippy day, but fun. We retraced a full 50% off of the lows of the day, so tomorrow will be up to GS pretty much and Google on Thursday.

Here is an iron Condor on Google I am looking at (this is for you Cuban Jim)

Looks like we are right where were,  just a bit lower for the week, now what? Well GS comes out before the bell tomorrow and my bet is they beat and gap but ultimately gain will fade. (like every other company has done so far)

Here is a chart why I bailed

They bounced right at double bottom and the RL low

Ebay is out and looks to be another pop and drop. So that would be good for NQ bears

Well I am ready for GS to announce but also looking for Google on Thursday and AMD

Hey Hobsters

Well as I wrote on Sunday I expected IBM to beat but sell off as INTC did. The stock is short term due for a retracement and I went full on short this afternoon just before the bell. FWIW I expect Google to perform the same way.  I expect a 23.6 to 38.2 retracement at the least. which shows up on the chart below.

Well we had a rally on a senate seat race that no one knows the results! WTF all I can say is rally on the rumor and even if it turns out to be true, sell on the news either way a win win for us.

Here is another stock to watch for this week. AMD, it is up from 3.00 to 9.00 from the March Lows.. earnings are out on Thursday AH, here is my gem to you and that’s to do a bearish spread or bull put spread on it. The I.V. is already too high to buy straight options unless you go deep in the money, but check the I.V as you don’t want to get a crush (at least on AMD)

I am still short EUR/USD  and expect further upside in the $DXY tomorrow. We retraced from the highs of today, but IMHO that is a healthy sign of further upside.

What will happen to the SPX, we now have a triple top at best the upside is just so limited and that’s why I cannot be a bull here, even with the market manipulation that goes on.  I will just have to pick stocks carefully and have small positions. I still have my FEB spy puts, but I cannot hold they beyond this week.

Good night to all

Hey Hobsters,

Ok first of all here is my opinion analysis thoughts on where we are and where we could be headed. I always say could, might, because to say I know for sure or without a doubt is just nonsense. No one knows for sure, all we can do is work with the latest data we have and make some educated decisions. I am a technical trader, but there are outside fundamentals that can change a stock or indexes direction.

First  all of let’s look @ the weekly S&P Cash. The Wave is about as extended as  I have ever seen! Typically Wave 3 is related to Wave 1 by on of a few ways. the most common mulitpliers are 1.618 and 2.618% and the wave we are in is extended by much more than that. Typically 75% only extended the 1.618 or 2.618.

As most of you know I felt that January 15th would be our turn date. not that we wont go up and down of course (corrective waves) but that the high for this wave has been seen.

If you notice the MACD is still overbought and check out the oscillator (one of my favorite indcators) there you see bearish divergence building. Now check out the RL in the chart, unreal! Also look where my software possbily shows us by end of 2010 beginning of 2011. Whoa, that surprised even me.

Now let’s look @ the daily SP Cash

According to EWT  this chart shows a retracement to 480 to 440, do I believe this nah, not right now the FED will not allow that this soon, I think. Now as I have told you anything is possible, but I really don’t think it’s likely. I just see a clear Bearish retracement in the making.

Now two of my favorite Stocks come out this week, IBM and Google. I will post a chart of Google  on the dailies. Everyone expects Google to blow out the earnings. Now that could be, but I have to hear the whisper number! Same as with IBM.

I will most likely do an iron condor on Google and a put spread on IBM.

Now I also mentioned to you guys about the $DXY opening up stronger this week, well so far so good i just picked up another 100 pips on the short AUD/USD position I held. (closed it) but will keep my short EUR as it hasn’t moved as much.

Here is my costume for a while….heheheh Good luck to all and yes I will be around allot tomorrow as I will be trading FX.

Hey gang,

Well INTC reported and had good numbers, but almost looks to be a non event. We shall see tomorrow, but I believe the stock had the move or most of it priced it and I don’t expect it to do much if anything tomorrow.

We had a high on the SPX of 1150.41 another new high and another day in the green. My question is where is the volume. The bearish divergence is getting stronger and stronger and eventually you run out of buyers. The RSI as Pram is now interested in and a great indicator is 68.20 on the daily and 70 is considered to be where the sellers will come in. So I am watching for this signal.

I had a good day today being short POT SHLD GOOG (credit spread & BF) nothing to scream about but these days I am thrilled to eek out some profits.

JPM is reporting in a.m and that should give the market some cause to make a move, possibly one last gasp for romance? Next week  and the following week are  the weeks I am waiting for.  There are the most companies reporting then and we should have some juicy choices.

I have some great earnings plays for a few that I am quite comfy with.

The dollar ended the day low (again) after rallying up a bit earlier in the day. The Fed just sells the $DXY when the tape is starting to go lower. How long can they manipulate this tape, well as long has they have green ink.

Here is a chart on the SPYs these are the RL I expect to see tomorrow to begin with

The futs are flat as I finish this and makes me laugh when I saw the hype on INTC. I added a bearish spread on BIDU today as I expect the sellers to come in tomorrow after possibly an initial small pop Good night and good drinking!

Love Anna

UPDATE 1/14/10

here is a 30 minute chart on the dollar I am expecting the dollar to reverse today and go higher

It was lower when I was working on this now it has turned positive!!

Hey Hobsters!

Can you believe the volume on the tape this year? It is non-exsistent. So there in lies the biggest problem. The Fed is running the tape right along side the GS boys! I know I know we have heard this before, but it’s OPX this week, so this move today doesn’t suede me from my goals.  I am sticking with my game plan, my turn date has the January 15th for the next corrective Wave. Will I be right? I don’t know, but I will not miss the move. I have spreads to keep me from going too crazy but not on the SPY’s.

I am not going to go into a bunch of charts tonight, to tell you the truth I am not in the mood. There is so much crap happening all over the world and it sometimes just makes me nuts.

So here’s to wishing you each a good night and hopefully I feel more into this thing tomorrow. Nothing has changed for the moment.

I know with OPX it’s an unreliable week! Love to you all!

Anna