I hope Hadik doesn't sue my a*s, but....

' From a price perspective, the DJIA is developing important support - and an initial, intermediate downside objective - around 9,939--9,989. This is where the monthly HLS and - in the coming week - the weekly 21 Low AMAC come into play. It is also where the current decline would match the magnitude of the June/July 2009 drop - a case of successive, equal declines.'

All I can say to keep away from the lawyers is, subscribe. Along with Anna, of course. :-)

Small side note, for anyone still up. ELO was, on balance, an amazing rock n roll band.

Go back to the Roy Wood days and continue forward.....

Alright First gray oval would be the entry, front run the opening range by .5pts. Good rejection volume at that level, notice the bearish divergence on RSI, and a moderately high tick. I'd enter with 2/3, usually it could test a little higher and if the signal hold I would add 1/3. But in this case it was 2/3 position. First green oval, at monthly pivot, I would take off 1/3, that is 2pts on that position, shallow volume indicates it is not gaining support which signals that we should go through, so 1/3 is still running. Notice the volume bar with gray oval, shows rejection I would get out as soon as possible noted by blue oval at close of that candle 3.75-4pts on that 1/3. Notice how we climb on decreasing volume good sign to get in again. Once again marked by gray oval with 2/3 now the scale out of 1/3 would be at either of the 2 yellow depends on how quick you were but either way 1.5-2pts depending on your fill I went for the second one. Other gray oval was for the other 1/3 which made it a 3/3 full position. Green oval place to scale out 1/3 reason was good movement and great volume to cover into marked by gray oval 4pts. Gray rectangle could be another entry for 1/3 but I didn't take it I just let the 1/3 run volume gave a signal that we would break through the lower pivot (near the blue oval) but once we closed and opened above I took last 1/3 off the table marked by blue oval 5-6pts depending on fill. Total was a kick ass trading day, best day all week! :)

http://screencast.com/t/MThlYzUzNzQ

Tes. you rock like mad! Whoo! Thanks a million ways to Sunday.

Everyone has there own set-ups, I don't think ppl should try and follow others, but the key of my post is the importance of scaling. Because if the trade blew my risk was well managed.

Link ?

Just added it
but here it is again

http://screencast.com/t/MThlYzUzNzQ

This is going to take me a bit to digest.

Everyone has there own set-ups, I don't think ppl should try and follow others, but I think the key is the importance of scaling. Because if the trade blew my risk was well managed.

I'm always interested to see the mechanics of how ppl. trade.
Enter, leg in/out indicators,etc.

I don't know much about pivots yet.

Thanks for taking the time to explain.

Person's Pivots are pretty good, dailies, weekly and monthly.

I'll read up on it. Thx.

Flyboy I do owe you an explanation as promised for the rationale underlying my combo charts I've been promoting and posting for the past month to any that have their curiosity peaked. Unfortunately, please excuse the absence of allegorical narration that typifies a PRS post, however I shall do my utmost best.

I posted this over at cobra's market analysis site with a few tweaks for clarification. Here goes.

I have been observing a couple observations myself between UUP, SPX, and the VIX. This is over a span of a couple of months. The basic method has been to find occurances of when the VIX is extremely low (sub 20's), that also contain characteristics of an ending diagonal pattern. UUP at the same point in time is also enveloped in it's own ending diagonal or bottoming phase.

Most importantly, as I may point out, you notice UUP is lagging the move in the VIX, or completes the ending diagonal first followed by a large breakout. VIX pattern is above UUP at this juncture, drops into it's own ending diagonal when UUP abruptly makes it's move up and crosses over.

This is key. The de facto driver that makes this correlation work is this. SPX and UUP must be trending together. They do not follow their normal inverse relationship. For example, that month (december) of agonizing listness melt-up days when the dollar would rebound.

Now, to establish that the IT top is being triggered, you must have these criterias in collective motion. After a point of time trending with the market, UUP makes a large move cross back over the VIX, and creates a large 1-2-3 move (not EW definition), the SPX will follow to the downside.

Please review my charts that span the last month or so. This most recent action is strikingly similar to last Jul - Aug 09 when we saw a large rise in the dollar followed by a steep selloff. Again, these are just observations using simple combination charts and may not resolve the same way as before. But, if this indeed is an EW primary (3) wave, then I have confidence that these correlations will make more pronounced moves than it's counterpart during Primary (1).

That's it. Simple charts from a fairly new explorer looking to light some torches along the madness cave/labyrinth that the MM's built.

*TheMacroEconomist did divulge to me that UUP has not been tracking $USD very well since May of this year. However, this correlation is based on the assumption using UUP only. Something we should all be attentive and heed. Now onto the charts.



These screen captures and annotations are a snapshot of that day in time. I apologize ahead of time for their rustic and unrefined appearance. I'm still finding my way. :)

12-30-09 Original
http://www.screencast.com/t/NjBiM2RiMGU

1-4-10
http://www.screencast.com/t/NGE2MDMyZDMt

1-7-10
http://www.screencast.com/t/ZmM4M2M0YT

1-20-10 yesterday
http://www.screencast.com/t/NWEyZmE1M2

added breadth to the mix
http://www.screencast.com/t/ZDQ4YWZiOTg

1-21-10 Today
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=2&...

*Edit* I must add that the dollar must start to breakout with more intensity. It should not lag the VIX surge. However, it may be consolidating into a cup and handle breakout on the daily chart. Something to be aware of.

Man, the work involved....this is great! Thanks so much.

This is the kind of sh*t that helps me make money. Appreciate it.

Alright late night hobsters, got somethin good for ya. (well I think so anyways). Going to show a classic set-up I played today. It'll take me a few minutes to write it out and annotate the chart.

cool.

Just posted it. lemme know what ya think.

MA madness:

http://img638.imageshack.us/img638/9164/6604765...

RUT: http://img695.imageshack.us/img695/3899/7672269...

[Since Anna's is a rated-PG-13 site, I will be self-censoring this comment. You may go over to Mole's rated-R site if you prefer to read the uncensored version].

If you've never since a perfect, double bottom on $VIX, you should consider charting $VIX/GLD.

http://screencast.com/t/NjM3MTkwMTgt

Pretty cool, huh?

Hookey pookey. All right! Another amazing chart, Raised. Dig it.

Thanks Dark.

I like it.
You guys that use black back grounds... reminds me of Lite-Brite.

You previously had inverted colors and tones (blacks, greens, and whites). Do you change your avatar as often as Anna changes hers? I always keep mine the same unless I'm writing to myself as Echo Beth. Sigh. I guess I should have put that in the past tense.

That's a great idea... another alias so I have someone to talk to ALL the time.

For some reason, you pic reminds me of Mark E. Smith.

ANNA said earlier today to wait until Sunday. She also said the site would be down until then.

Thats true.

Opps.

lol

Anna you going to bailout your boyfriend?

http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/01/22/ben.bern...

Or at least give him a place to crash when he is out of a job...

is there a disqus-like area for chatting in OBB? thanks

There's a Community Blog as well as a Bulletin Board. I have no idea how either willb e utilized though.

Thx we will see

Anna,

I signed up over at OBB. My user name seems to be my real last name. That's no good.

How do I change my user name (the name people see)?

Doesn't look like it? I just went through the "Profile"page and it's not a field one can edit. I believe you'll have to send off an email to the admin and ask for a correction.

Hmm. Couldn't find an email address to use, so I replied to the email I got from them.
That was info@optionsblackboard.com Doesnt seem anyone would read that one.

would it maybe be admin@optionsblackboard.com ??

At worse, Anna will deal with it for you.

Sorry for the mess. I will try again Sunday night.

I'll try that. Thanks

Anna

I attempted to log in to OBB and had I had a password error (#1 not equal to #2). And could I grandfather in DWW (paying his fees)? He amuses me to no end. He only thinks he is a bad boy. Well, he is but I am so much more. No fault of his own, I just have way more years of experience. I hope to fly out and instruct him on the real thing one day.

John

I'm sure Anna wouldn't mind if you wanted to grandfather all the small traders here assuming she didn't have to do anything in exchange. You know what they say about assuming though. I can't remember the rest, but something about ass.

:-)

http://www.chicgeeks.com/uploaded_images/Cat-fo...


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Looks like a rat. Been out a while.
Better be a big reward.

COWS, CALVES: NEVER BRED.
Also, 1 gay bull for sale.

I did not even think about the New Moon Trade all day.

Wish I had -- I might have stayed with my TZA longer than I did.

Anyway, after 5 days, the TZA New Moon Trade is up 13.9%.

Not too shabby.

That's incredible.

I missed buying TNA in the last minute of the AH session. I went to click "buy" and the session ended. Would have been at 41.15

Have to wait for Monday to see whether that's good or bad. Probably good.

deleted

After looking at some charts, I think there is more downside to come in the $RUT. I think we bounce first, though.

dreadwin,

Maybe I can reload my TZA on that upside. I had been trying to stay in the new moon trade, and it got away from me today.

Am watching the AH session -- if TNA gets cheap enough, I may get back in.

I only trade two things, seems I ought to be able to keep up with them :)

Not too shabby at all :-)

Anna,

I made $60 today. My initial gain of $90 was trimmed due to an aborted attempt to go long with one March Call.

Well done Lester.

Hey, did you already get your username for OBB?

LOL

John

Hi John!

Lester better get his username before this sneaky wolf does, eh? ;-)

Yeah Lester!

3 trades for me today GS/AMR/BIDU..two long and one closing out a VS Put on BIDU. I made money on all three:-)

Just goes to show, money can be made on any single day on both sides of the trade. One of the things I enjoy the most out of this site is the fact that we do play the "market" and not only one direction like some blogs.

Happy weekend to all!

Nice Day and I agree. It is a neat site. Hope you have a nice weekend.

$SPX

Broke fib line yesterday and turquoise today. Torquoise break looks more decisive than last time in November.

http://screencast.com/t/MmYwZDljYm

BTW, there have been three posts today - in case you're waiting for something specific.

:-P

Nasdaq from '78. Fib fan courtesy of Stainless Steel Chicken.

http://screencast.com/t/NmIxZGIy

Closer view shows purple channel line and orange fib fan broken. Others remain intact just below.

http://screencast.com/t/MzZjMTg2M

RBW. These are really nice charts. Thanks for sharing. Try and stay out of the trash cans this weekend.

You're welcome, USC.

However, you should know that some dumpsters are like gifts from God.

Now go over to Evil Speculator to read a couple edgier comments, and reply there to tell me how you like 'em apples. While you're down in the gutter with Mole and me, "Obey!"

Nasdaq-100 from ten years ago. Two trains runnin'. One orange. One pale yellow. Broke orange. Yellow nearby as well as the rally's 61.8 fib.

http://screencast.com/t/ZWExNzNmZ

Lavender channel line and weekly Rodent Squiggles on $TRAN shows there is support nearby.

http://screencast.com/t/ZWExNzNmZ

Ended the day with TNA, underwater, but roughly even on the day, over all.

TNA is slowly climbing after hours and it's tempting to sell it all and be all cash going into next week.

The correct answer depends on whether we gap up Monday, or gap down.

I have no idea, so I will resort to the coins.
24 heads, 28 tails.
The tails have it. Selling it all.

If you read below I am all cash.

Here's some MA madness.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&...

you'll need a stockcharts.com acct.

My brain's too tired to write quality commentary. What I'm going to do right now is post some charts. I'll talk about them later.

Take a break, its been a great week.

Great, now I'm talking to the dogs like Ben...

Margaux aaaaaaaaff... goooood grrrrrrrrrrrlll.

Britain raises Terror alert...this could add to the day after hours...

Earl, I hope everything worked out today. I think next week I am going to concentrate on trading the TNA instead of TZA. I just like it better. Which means I will probably be just scalping trades. Have a nice weekend.

gcocks,

I messed up about as bad as anyone could today.

Got out too early one one trade avoiding a nice gain.
Paid no attention to Anna warning about going lower while I piled up some TNA.

I resolved it back to cash (see above).

You have a nice weekend also.

I also closed some too early, on the short side, in particular the IBM puts. Looks like I left more on the table than I'd made since yesterday on that one.

Today was a great day to trade, lots of opportunities, yet seemed very dead at one point and I just never adjusted to the change of pace at the end.

Can't wait til Monday.

Congratulations on your gains Anna. Do you still think we're going to 1220, longer term I mean?

thanks Un you too
yes, but not before we finish our correction :)

Err, actually I got caught going the wrong way today. I was "fading the VIX" and the VIX faded me. :( Not castrophic though. :)

A key take-away for me today was around 1PM, when the VIX was going up while the SPX was slightly down to flat. Normally on a Friday afternoon you'd expect the VIX to be down in that situation as the MMs priced out premium ahead of the weekend.

Meant that someone was outbidding the MMs on SPX index options, which are put-dominated - a hint there that we might take out LOD into the close. ;)

I'll post some updated charts later on, once the final WSJ volume data is in. If you noticed from this morning, often on a steep selloff it's 2-3 days before the VIX snaps back. Will be watching for this early next week.

Looking for a snap back on mon. 1100, 1108 1120 RLs

long small bgu (I just had to do it.)

Gap/trap lower at the open.

so sez the magic 8 ball

1120 would cause a lot of people to chase, and make people question whether the dip is just another buying opportunity. I think we could hit that, then take another sharp turn to the downside. Great fun if you're a MM.

I'm referring to 1120.

Lots of bears would be shorting there too, great time for a short squeeze at that level.

That's why wave 2's tend to be sharp corrections

My money is on the 8.

Better do better than when I asked it if Janet Puketsky would sleep with me....

Props to anna for that read on another grind lower -- caught me by surprise too (and thats no fun, esp. when Anna had mentioned it... should've been no surprise!)

Hope everyone has a lovely weekend -- managed to screw up my plan today royally but only emotional damage (and a little monetary). What a sad thing when I don't follow my own plan!

Best of luck. Trying to remain positive... take care everyone. I need a break (and I was JUST on vacation!).

Obviously you're not listen to Anna NOR me. Who are you going to ignore next? ;-)

Sorry, I'm not as gentle as Anna - I come from a school that believes that mistakes are part of learning - if you are willing to learn.

Peace.

HA!

I still have my shorts on, I just got caught stop-less trying to be cute
with a scalp turned trade turned investment (sigh).

Very immature and just flat out poor trading. I refuse to let that happen
again.

You're right, really, everyone was suggesting a further breakdown. I'm very
displeased (and disappointed) with myself but know that my trading was 95%
with the exception of being a FUCKING CLOWN with that 1100 breakdown.

Sorry to whine but I simply must self-hate a little on Friday so I can come
back Sunday night 100%. I really hope you (and Anna) know there's no
ignoring going on -- just me trying to second guess an otherwise easy
situation.

It won't be so hard on Monday. I vow to make it easier on myself (rather
than trap myself in stupid shit).

Hey PRS thanks sweetie. You have some just as good if not better :)

you too and can really enjoy this one like i haven't in a long time hehehehe

I need a glass of wine working 12 hours days for 7 days lately :)

Only one glass? :)

I think I've only got 200 calories in me so far today. (Yucky oatmeal). I'm going to see if I can scrounge a free meal, and get a shower. After that, I'll plan to be back to pour over charts.

Dude, go eat some cardboard haha

Little sleep. Little food. Hangover. No problem. Hehe.

Alright, don't take crap from the raccoons when you invade the trash bins. Bite them back and take what's yours.

Wait, PRS, do you have somewhere to go? I was hoping to discuss somethings over with you.

Feel free -- I was just so dismayed that I wanted to go hide in my bed for a
few hours.

Can't even get any good herb right now, either, so my favorite medication is
out of stock. Major bummer.

So, go for it. Email or reply whenever you can, I'll be around for a bit.

Guitars, I have a few charts up so far. Do you ever chart $OEX? I think it's easier to draw channels and extensions on it than $SPX.

http://screencast.com/t/ZDExNDUxY2Mt

I hardly touch OEX, SPX I do just because its like SPY, its the SPAM of the
trading world...

I havent checked our position on the charts but frankly, things got so
wrecked today I feel the need to look at charts fresh so that Im not biased
to think 'it'll rally back' like I did today.

Real personal failure today from just a single non-stopout. And that's all
I need as a lesson (i take this shit personally!). It really fuckin' messed
me up bad.

You could leave your old shit on SPX and start fresh with OEX.

Although I didn't fuck up today, I could have had an even better day since I should have shorted SLV instead of GLD yesterday as my chart indicated that I should. I was too focused on getting a good entry reshorting GLD, which I did. I got a pretty damn good exit on GLD today as well, but I would have been able to ride SLV down farther and won't have had to exit as soon. Oh well, next time I'll be less likely to make the same mistake.

http://screencast.com/t/ODM1ZmFlZT

Just thought I'd point out to you that your the only one to use vulgarity on this site. If we were in a pub sharing an ale, I'd share those words with ya, but no, not here in a blog:-)

We swear all the time on Evil Speculator. I knew there wasn't as much of it here, but none? Really? I'll stop using the f-word, but please allow the "damn" and "hell."

:-) deal.