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Jan
19

Another Pop and Drop :)

Posted by Annamall. Comments.

Hey Hobsters

Well as I wrote on Sunday I expected IBM to beat but sell off as INTC did. The stock is short term due for a retracement and I went full on short this afternoon just before the bell. FWIW I expect Google to perform the same way.  I expect a 23.6 to 38.2 retracement at the least. which shows up on the chart below.

ibm

Well we had a rally on a senate seat race that no one knows the results! WTF all I can say is rally on the rumor and even if it turns out to be true, sell on the news either way a win win for us.

don-elephant

white-line-550-px-long

Here is another stock to watch for this week. AMD, it is up from 3.00 to 9.00 from the March Lows.. earnings are out on Thursday AH, here is my gem to you and that’s to do a bearish spread or bull put spread on it. The I.V. is already too high to buy straight options unless you go deep in the money, but check the I.V as you don’t want to get a crush (at least on AMD) :)

I am still short EUR/USD  and expect further upside in the $DXY tomorrow. We retraced from the highs of today, but IMHO that is a healthy sign of further upside.

What will happen to the SPX, we now have a triple top at best the upside is just so limited and that’s why I cannot be a bull here, even with the market manipulation that goes on.  I will just have to pick stocks carefully and have small positions. I still have my FEB spy puts, but I cannot hold they beyond this week.

Good night to all :)

This entry was posted on Tuesday, January 19th, 2010 at 5:42 pm by Annamall. Filed under: Anna's Spread Boutique. Tagged as: . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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  • lester
    I bought two Mar SPY 111 Puts just now. I hope to hold these more than a few days, but if we push over 115.15 I will close. That is my plan and I just wont worry about what happens between now and 115.15.
  • mmTesla
    Back from lunch. Looks like tmro will be an interesting day.
  • TheMacroEconomist
    May even be an interesting night, when China markets resume trading. ;)

    Off now to analyze oil. My initial take is that the Platts and Reuters analysts estimates for supply builds are too low. But price-wise, there was the big selloff already today...
  • mmTesla
    Haha so true, usually a big reason why I don't hold overnight. Lots of trades out their, many overvalued instruments.
  • I am doing a new post and the reason I bailed on GS
  • hahahaha no but you're probably going to be ok unless its a pop and drop but you will be out before the drop
  • flyboy08
    Because I'm long?...:-)
  • Romaitas
    Wow... Anyone see STX.
  • gcocks83
    Wow what a jump.
  • You mean SBX? I said 24 and it might get there
  • Romaitas
    Trading halted... blowout earnings
  • JoeTrader
    might be a good fade tomorrow
  • Yep another pop and drop :)
  • Romaitas
  • dark1p
    Interpreting this paragraph is a source of endless amusement....

    “Our strong financial performance in the December quarter was the result of our ongoing progress in driving operational efficiencies, our leadership position in high capacity, high performance products, an improved product mix and the overall strength of demand for digital storage,” said Steve Luczo, Seagate CEO.
  • Romaitas
    boilerplate statement <enter month here>. I wonder what the 'other' one reads...
  • dark1p
    "We've been cutting everything down to the bone because last year scared us silly. We still have the biggest market share in our specific product categories, but we've had to finally give in and make some things we never made in order to keep some customers on the hook. Lucky for us, the computer makers ramped up production thinking the recovery was in progress, so we were able to get rid of a lot inventory that's been lying around. We still made a lot of new stuff, though, because inventory counts as cash on our GAAP statement and makes us look a lot better than we would otherwise," said Steve Luczo, Seagate CEO.
  • monicadern
    He seriously said that? Since when do you get honesty out of a CEO?!
  • dark1p
    No, just my attempt at translating the actual statement.
  • mmTesla
    Looks like the CEO is justifying his pay and wants a bonus.
  • dark1p
    I write stuff like that for our clients sometimes. It's much less impressive in plain English.
  • mmTesla
    Where is the fun in plain english?
  • I mean 25
  • monicadern
    Another fun day in the land of whipsaw.
  • raised_by_wolves
    No whipsaw for USO today :-)
  • I bailed on GS I didn't want to risk them trading up, just don't trust the price action.
  • raised_by_wolves
    For instance, today I'm holding my GLD puts that I bought today and my USO puts that I bought yesterday after my Jan ones got exorcized or exercised or whatever that options term is. Depending on what happens tomorrow, I may have to sell my GLD puts. I anticipate continuing to hold my USO puts.
  • Romaitas
    Close. Finally some excitement.
  • gcocks83
    Is GS reporting right after the bell?
  • IN a.m. ;)
  • Romaitas
    tomorrow morning
  • raised_by_wolves
    Of course, the Rodent Squiggles were originally used to track $SPX/GLD. So, here's an update on that front.

    http://screencast.com/t/ZTAzMjc4N2

    Real $SPX/GLD breakout above that dotted red squiggle, or does the ratio keep ranging?
  • lester
    Shit, I just closed my Puts for a 13% loss. Think I should have stayed away.
  • raised_by_wolves
    Lester, I dare you to make only one trade a week.
  • or hold it for more than a day!
  • raised_by_wolves
    I, for one, almost always hold for more than a day.

    Like I told Dark, it's the only way to fly. That and (CH 3 O) 3 C 6 H 2 CH 2 CH 2 NH 2

    ;-)
  • PRSGuitars
    You are the smartest druggie I know (and that's saying something, remember, we were all swapping intelligent druggie stories not a week ago...)
  • dark1p
    And I will hold for a couple of weeks in certain circumstances, with no effort or trepidation. With or without chemical additives.
  • Now we'll go down you know we hit the 50% RL
  • string01
    Tracing out a 5 of C here this afternoon
    just hit the top of the channel
  • raised_by_wolves
    Anna may see me as special (no, I didn't detect any sarcasm in her voice), but I don't see what's special about today's price action.

    Here's $INDU with squiggles instead of lines:

    http://screencast.com/t/Y2FiMDJiNjE

    I would advise PPT to close this above the dotted blue squiggle, and, one of these days, above the green one.
  • No not at all :)

    Trans I just unhedged my short leg on IBM and bought it back to be straight long puts.
  • TransworldDepravity
    Ok i bought back some 130 puts.
  • :) G/L to us that's what I have
  • 114.00 about to hit
  • gcocks83
    Are you still holding Spy 112 Puts. Will you hold overnight?
  • yea dumped the 111's though at 38.6%
  • gcocks83
    NIce Work!
  • dark1p
    Looks like I didn't miss much this afternoon. So far we have a break and not a breakdown.

    And as the market likes to do so often, we probably end the day with technicals showing we could go either way from wherever we end up.

    And then there's GS....
  • gcocks83
    Earl, Had any luck today?
  • Earl of
    Sat on my hands all day.

    Was wrong about TZA going up all day.

    Going to watch AH action -- no idea what to do at this point.
  • pricey
    Watch the overnight action
  • Earl of
    not sure what you mean
  • pricey
    If you watch globex and the other markets you can get a feel for the open. DAX is good to watch as well.
  • Earl of
    I see now

    When I start up in the morning, I do look at what the futures did over night. Haven't watched DAX.
  • pricey
    I am a member of DTI and they work the numbers pretty good!
  • Earl of
    what is DTI ?
  • pricey
    www.dtitrader.com
    You can email me if you want more info. jeannepea at hotmail dot com
  • gcocks83
    YOu had some from over noght. do you still have that? If you saw my earlier post I sold about 1/3 of my position for a small loss.
  • Earl of
    I still have everything from last night

    It went up

    It came back down
  • raised_by_wolves
    Grrr, running into pink resistance.

    http://screencast.com/t/NjAzY2ViNmU

    I want my purple line touch, dammit!
  • I think they will stay around here waiting for GS results :)
  • monicadern
    Anna, any thoughts on why the banks are fairly strong today? You think GS and the others knows something we don't?
  • Just rotating sectors. I am out of most puts now. 114 is 50% RL on SPY
  • monicadern
    Thanks.
  • Romaitas
    when don't they know something we don't.

    On a lighter note (specifically for dark):

    I'm at a cafe right now and a group of 12 year old boys are surfing the web for porn. The giggles and commentary are priceless... Give them a couple months and they'll have better resolution with the iTablet
  • monicadern
    Yes, you are exactly right.
  • gcocks83
    And we had to sneek peeks at Playboys?
  • Romaitas
    I know such a bummer =/
  • Crash Gordon
    Wow never logged this live before - i am on the edge of seat!
  • it's so cool huh? it normally cost $ to hear this
  • defleming
    may I ask where on TOS you are listening?
  • looks like pit is long from quite a bit lower
  • 113.50 here come :)
  • monicadern
    Praying to the bots. They are my new god:)
  • string01
    The are the one true god.
  • ROTFLMBO hahahahaha :)
  • ok we didn't hold over the 113.79 so just pray the bots sell here
  • string01
    They have sell bots ?

    cool.
  • string01
    Here's your 3:30 squeeze
  • string01
    or not.
  • TheMacroEconomist
    I'm thinking: the opening gap is too far away to be a factor today.

    So likely no big squeeze. That gap's a battle for another day.
  • Could go to 114.00 if this pushes higher
  • Jigsaw
    To back up Anna's long USD.JPY trade. Looks like a nice pennant forming on the hourly chart
    USD.JPY - http://screencast.com/t/MGVjNzlhN
  • thanks Jig :P)
  • GS now sellers :)
  • monicadern
    How can you tell?
  • Hear it in the pits :)
  • monicadern
    I wish my pits gave me premonitions (j/k)!
  • string01
    Mine do.
    Right now they are telling me to bathe.
  • hahahahah :)
  • Hit it!
  • lester
    I am still short. do you think we reverse now?
  • Well this is important spot 38.6% RL from Lows
  • 113.79 38.6% RL
  • Crisis What Crisis
    Any thoughts on GOOG earnings?
  • Darn it forgot to look for Cuban Jim...
  • I am staying short, I think we got almost 38.6 rl on spy's now down I feel
  • Romaitas
    Are you hanging onto HUM... I dumped half my position earlier
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