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Jan
17

Wearing My Bear Goldilocks hunting Costume :)

Posted by Annamall. Comments.

Hey Hobsters,

Ok first of all here is my opinion analysis thoughts on where we are and where we could be headed. I always say could, might, because to say I know for sure or without a doubt is just nonsense. No one knows for sure, all we can do is work with the latest data we have and make some educated decisions. I am a technical trader, but there are outside fundamentals that can change a stock or indexes direction.

First  all of let’s look @ the weekly S&P Cash. The Wave is about as extended as  I have ever seen! Typically Wave 3 is related to Wave 1 by on of a few ways. the most common mulitpliers are 1.618 and 2.618% and the wave we are in is extended by much more than that. Typically 75% only extended the 1.618 or 2.618.

spx weekly

As most of you know I felt that January 15th would be our turn date. not that we wont go up and down of course (corrective waves) but that the high for this wave has been seen.

If you notice the MACD is still overbought and check out the oscillator (one of my favorite indcators) there you see bearish divergence building. Now check out the RL in the chart, unreal! Also look where my software possbily shows us by end of 2010 beginning of 2011. Whoa, that surprised even me.

Now let’s look @ the daily SP Cash

spx daily

According to EWT  this chart shows a retracement to 480 to 440, do I believe this nah, not right now the FED will not allow that this soon, I think. Now as I have told you anything is possible, but I really don’t think it’s likely. I just see a clear Bearish retracement in the making.

Spy daily

Now two of my favorite Stocks come out this week, IBM and Google. I will post a chart of Google  on the dailies. Everyone expects Google to blow out the earnings. Now that could be, but I have to hear the whisper number! Same as with IBM.

google daily

I will most likely do an iron condor on Google and a put spread on IBM.

Now I also mentioned to you guys about the $DXY opening up stronger this week, well so far so good i just picked up another 100 pips on the short AUD/USD position I held. (closed it) but will keep my short EUR as it hasn’t moved as much.

Here is my costume for a while….heheheh :) Good luck to all and yes I will be around allot tomorrow as I will be trading FX.

anna goldilocks

This entry was posted on Sunday, January 17th, 2010 at 5:14 pm by Annamall. Filed under: Anna's Spread Boutique. Tagged as: . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • springheel_jack
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    http://hotoptionbabe.com/2010/01/19/mchugh-call...
  • PRSGuitars
    IWM hitting daily vwap already. Huh?
  • Apple Al
    Looks like our motto should be "Go long or be wrong".
  • TheMacroEconomist
    I still like the idea of a selloff this week - and skynard mentioned the potential H&S setting up on the SPX attm.

    But SPX never reached the overbought 1150s last week. So I'd be surprised now by a quick drop to (say) 1080.

    A lot will depend on earnings - how much expectations are baked in already.
  • dark1p
    Volume drops off, nothing happening....is this how it's going to be until 3 o'clock? zzzzz
  • Earl of
    In TZA again.

    No clue about directions from here, just buying back what I sold last Friday.
  • string01
    I'm just watching that thing tick right now.
    I'm still in from thurs.
    Thinking of adding.
  • Earl of
    I would like to get some more at 8.70

    A bit worried TZA might crater tomorrow
  • I know what you mean -- It feels like we're consolidating for the next push up.
  • gcocks83
    I would prefer you wanting to buy more at 10.50.
  • Earl of
    10.50 seems so distant and far away

    Difficult to imagine :)
  • skynard
    Nice H&S pattern set up on SPX for the past week. Need to penetrate that 1131. Damn!
  • dark1p
    Let's see, good earnings reports, we dive. Bad earnings reports, we rocket.

    Makes complete sense.
  • Romaitas
    It makes sense when you're high on PCP wooooooooooooo
  • dark1p
    I knew I was doing something wrong! hahahaha
  • PRSGuitars
    On a separate note, EVERY DAMN DAY at 11:10 am EST there's wacky DX action. Seriously. EUR/USD responds well for a trader to this nonsense. Ideas?

    I always see action around this time of day...
  • string01
    Asia, EU, US all online.. Asia ending their day.
  • dark1p
    That's 5:10 pm in Europe and 4:10 in Britain...don't know if that's part of it....
  • PRSGuitars
    I will say that every major top in the last few months has come at the end of a hard-fought battle. No perfect TA setup, just a grinding flat arena of selling into strength while everyone muses about the next break higher.

    It's hard when you see the market break strongly higher on volume, on a first trading day, through VWAPs and pivots, with no respect to the major dump it saw on Friday. No reason to trust shorting that, but then again, I can recall a nasty 1-2-3 topping pattern (with the 1-2-3 descending tops, slightly lower each, until after 3 they couldn't take it any longer and it crashed...hard...) very much like this.

    On the other hand, though, then you have three descending tops which is a clear neckline/diagonal like pattern for a bullish continuation break higher. Fuck. I'm ready for my 50 pt correction, please, thank you.

    Things also bounced soundly off their 20 day sma. Very unpleasant. The Qs for example look like they're ready to come down through the 20 dsma... but no... they bounce. What gives? Shenanigans.

    I'm about to switch to establishing IT futures positions before using my options capital. That way I'm much less under the gun with respect to greeks (duh) and I can afford to wait until the decay is much more apparent while still giving myself some short delta to chew on. Very hard to let my /es trading go away but then again, fuck it. I'd rather not have to trade and make money (as if IT futures make more than options when both are short in this environment! lol), so, perhaps the passive mode is preferred right now.
  • dark1p
    Yeah, what he said. :-)

    Except I'll stay in just a little bit longer.....
  • skynard
    The old buckaroo is gaining.
  • string01
    Easy stop sweep this a.m. for the big boys.
    We'll see what the follow thru is like.
  • the_first_dude
    I said every dip would be buyable until mid-February. I didn't present that as an optional scenario.
  • Romaitas
    How will a republican victory in MA effect the market? What do you guys think
  • dark1p
    I don't think it will at all, but how does anyone prove that? If the mkt goes down, you can say it didn't have an effect, if it goes up you can say that's why, and you could be completely wrong in either case!

    Personally, I could care less, so maybe I'm not the best weathervane. Though I think it falls into the same category with 98% of the population....
  • Romaitas
    =)
  • string01
    Is Disqus working right this am?
  • Romaitas
    In fact its lagging so much that I just checked my email and am getting replay updates from posts made yesterday
  • string01
    I've not gotten an email from the thing since Fri.
  • dark1p
    This technology thing will be pretty great once they figure it out.

    Funny, but my internet connection at home was kind of slow this morning, and the landlords downstairs lost it completely. Some kind of intertube problem today?
  • string01
    bit build up in the connectors.
  • dark1p
    Tired hamsters.
  • string01
    Its from watching all that video of people being really nice to each other.
  • Romaitas
    No! Lagging
  • dark1p
    At the moment. Earlier, it was a mess.
  • AudioTactics
    It looks like the Rep victory is being priced in today...

    So maybe no effect or sell the news as someone mentioned below?
  • monicadern
    Anna, fully short again. Not going to be writing much in the next few days because have to take care of a friend's kid along with my own. I believe the market will go lower, just not sure when so I think at this point, I just prefer not to look at it so much. Have a great few days all and best of luck!
  • string01
    Smartest person here!
  • gcocks83
    Why because she is short or going to step away?
  • string01
    Stepping away.
  • TheMacroEconomist
    GM Monica! Was thinking over the weekend: where your accountant must've gone wrong was not rolling each wash loss into the basis of the next trade. Eventually the losses get wiped out by gains, which are not subject to wash sale rules.

    Hope the kids cooperate better than this market attm! :)
  • monicadern
    Your awesome Macro! Thank you so much.
  • dark1p
    Enjoy the kids!
  • Brian_mk
    take care Monica... hope you don't lose your sanity taking care of all those ruggers lol.
  • dark1p
    Anyone looking to play ES short has a best case scenario of a 1-2, 1-2 here.

    All the 'P3' baloney is looking pretty stupid at the moment. But the idea we were due for a serious 50 point correction was and remains valid. It may turn out to be incorrect as far as last week's top is concerned, but that doesn't negate its validity.

    The volume looks to be back, and that's good. Hope it stays.
  • spudthorpe
    I think the best case scenario for the bears is that this is the top of an a-b-c off Friday's lows. I agree with you that we are due for a correction (i.e. an interim top) soon regardless of whether we've hit a long-term top.
  • dark1p
    Well, yes, that's what I was saying, on ES that would make it a 1-2, 1-2 since Jan 11 if true.
  • The problem is that the volume is on the buy side..
  • dark1p
    Picky, picky! hahahaha

    But really, I'm just glad to see some action. This is the only way we get some resolution, and get away from treacly meltups and half-ass drops.
  • Brian_mk
    I'd like some light mayo and some lettuce on that baloney sammich.
  • string01
    Wow... just got up.
    Nice stop sweep.
  • Romaitas
    Is Disqus working now...
  • flyboy08
    On and off...PITA!
  • senrex
    Camarilla SPX Weekly R4: 1146.49

    Classic SPX Weekly R1: 1147.16
  • TheMacroEconomist
    And Market Profile analysis has a 5-day/10-day value area upper quadrant around ES 1142. That would translate to an SPX weekly R1 of about 1145.68.

    SPX looked like it hit congestion so I sold the SPY Feb 114 calls at 2.42. Good trade cos the fill at the open was 1.95.

    Still holding INTC Feb 21 puts. Clearly I shoulda sold 'em Friday...
  • pricey
    This was an interesting read on the weekend. Good prediction for this am.

    www.tidallyspeaking.blogspot.com
  • gsavli
    PPT gone berserk here.
  • gsavli
    like a rabid dog, salivating all around and biting every bear it can find.
  • lester
    I have resigned from trading. I have only closed two trades for gains in the last three months. It seemed that many had gone bearish late last week and many calls that the top was in. So I hung myself out there 100% short and now I have stopped out for a 40% loss today. It really seems that the market cannot have two days in a row and I have just given up. I would switch to long, but I think market is overpriced. But that is just me; no-one else thinks it is overpriced obviously. I said I was one bad trade away from quitting and I have to stick to my guns. I have virtually no money left to trade with anyway. Good luck to all on th long side.
  • Romaitas
    Best of luck Lester. We've all made our mistakes when it comes to the market... I remember my first go; no system, no knowledge of techs, etc. I basically had better odds in Vegas... After some time using virtual trade programs, without risking my hard earned cash, and reading about the market I learned from my mistakes. I hope you do the same and come back soon.
  • dark1p
    Good luck to you, Lester. I know the feeling very well. It's no fun.
  • Best of luck, lester. I'm sorry about your losses, and I think you're making the right decision. Focus on rebuilding your fortune in the same manner you built it.
  • springheel_jack
    Best of luck to you Lester.
  • loaf_of_bread
    Lester you come back many moons from now when you are wiser and your life is better for you. you said it best the market can not it seems put two days back to back see you later friend.
  • TheMacroEconomist
    I personaly did not understand all the top calls - with momentum indicators like the A/D line and McClellan's On-Balance Volume Oscillator all showing bullish strength.

    Be that as it may, the top calls were all on multi-month or multi-year bases. IMO, totally irrelevant to the day trader. ;)

    (I did believe we might see a swing-term top this week. I'm still on that theme even though attm it's trying to turn my INTC options play from a victory to a defeat, lol!)
  • Lester, I think that the biggest lesson I have learned in the last two months is that the real opportunities to make $$$ are in individual stocks, not the indexes or sector index ETFs.
  • JoeTrader
    best of luck to you lester
  • penn
    i'm just glad i didnt hold onto my puts at the end of last wk. at this point, this mkt will run up as far as it wants to go....it's now in a vacuum space, PPT, Treasury, Goldman, all want to push the mkts up to stratosphere, and dollar will sell off further into oblivion.
  • Argon
    If we paint a doji on the 15min, I'll double-down on my IWM puts. Working on it.
  • tfish
    Sold my BIDU Feb's for almost 50% had to take it & hope for a re-load....
  • Great trade! I thought BIDU would bounce at 440. It was resistance many times in the past but I guess not today!
  • JoeTrader
    nice trade
  • mmTesla
    Played the gap fill, now calling it a day. See ya tomorrow! :)
  • PRSGuitars
    I am baffled as to how they manage to continually stick-save this market from certain peril.

    This is really about all I can take. I am really not ready to come back to a market that does THIS (my problem; not the market's).
  • pricey
    Crazy times....if only I did not have a bias - I would have been rich...
  • JoeTrader
    it has the majority of traders scratching their heads for sure
  • Argon
    People are front running the election results - we should not have gone above SP 1142 today... sell the news tomorrow??
  • AudioTactics
    I wish I knew...

    I was expecting the market to top out at 1142 as well but it just kept going.

    This market is a bear killer!
  • Argon
    Yep, it is. We did doji on the previous 15min and I did double my IWM puts. Lester indicator says DOWN.
  • skynard
    Yep, also doubled my SPY puts. We will see.
  • lester
    I have closed the Puts I bought on Friday for a significant loss. I cannot stand the pain. Paid 1.3 for Feb SPY 110s. Sold for 0.90. This is just fucking absurd.
  • TheMacroEconomist
    Yeah I'd have put in a sell order on those puts right at the open (either right before or right after depending on the quote).

    I didn't have a SPY position over the weekend but this is what I did this AM buying SPYBJ, the Feb 114 call.

    Rationale: with nothing worse than C news premarket, that opening gap was gonna get filled!!!
  • dark1p
    Two modes of thought, Lester. Sell now and rebuy at a lower price if the market continues up, or just hold and wait since you have weeks yet before expiration.

    Both valid, you chose what's behind door number 1. Nothing wrong with that.
  • Good morning all! Out of my BIDU put for ... wait, what's this? Was that a profit? I'm not used to seeing that. +30%
  • JoeTrader
    nice work man
  • gcocks83
    Congratulations, Lunch at McDonalds today?
  • My strategy was to short BIDU, then long GOOG. I thought BIDU would bounce at 440, but I guess not! I have one GOOG 630 call, which I bought at $7.3.
  • losershot
    I found an Oppenheimer investment strategy paper. They are expecting S&P earnings per share to hit $70 by EOY according to two regression models.
  • Iguanadon
    That's insane to even imagine... solely on gov't spending money? Oh well, I guess we'll see.
  • losershot
    Solely on economic growth. The report discusses that the stimulus package had little effect. It also argues there can be economic recovery despite government debt. They believe this is a 'V' shaped recovery.
  • AudioTactics
    They must have eaten the moldy green shoots! ;)
  • skynard
    Nice pop on the VIX.
  • Pop and Dip......
  • TheMacroEconomist
    Getting some Error 503s - Service Unavailable out of Disqus. ;)

    Like I said I think it's just that VIX close last Friday was artificially low. SPX big drop was early on, then the option MMs used the quiet trade into the close to price out the 3-day weekend.

    Now we got the gap fill out of the way, SPX up 5 from Friday and VIX is still up. Let the real trading begin. Out of C short when it backed up to 3.33, looks like that was the right move so far..
  • Wow, opening volumes in this early period are bigger than they've been for quite some time.....
  • skynard
    Good sign right, that is if you are short.
  • The Unknown Trader
    Good Morning Folks!
  • Iguanadon
    Disqus issues... shocking, I know... so a delayed Good Morning to you.
  • The Unknown Trader
    Thanks Iggy, and I hope you are doing well today.
  • Be back in a bit off for a doctor appointment :)
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