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http://hotoptionbabe.com/2009/12/30/the-bond-ma...

Hey Jack. I hope you shorted SPY the past couple days (as did I) for pay day today. :-)

Yes, there's more coming I think though. I'm expecting next week to be
kind to shorts as well.

Jack,

Any thoughts on USO? We have oil inventories today and I think it will be up due to the snow storm and hence less holiday travel in east coast. It is also up against the 50 MA on daily, which should offer some resistance.

TIA

In the light of the USD situation, I think it is looking like a very
interesting short from here.

Wild guess: today might be a down day.

After the maket manipulation from this year i started to trading FX a few months and i`ve not intentions to go back to equities, of course i will trade it sometimes but i focus my trading on FX.

At the moment I think fx offers better value and more predictability.

Equities have been acting very strangely of late.

Pop Quiz!
QCOM,
a short now?,
b short in a day or so?
c short at the $48 double top?
d Forget about it?

Shorted SPX at EOD. All in. (Small account so why the hell not? Fuck the 2% rule). Let the chips fall where they may. But that's me, and I could be wrong.

QCOM is a stock that is known to drift....not good for straight calls or puts...lol.

BTW, on the 3% rule, the H&S pattern will be confirmed at about 47.2

Doesn't look like a double top to me I have to say:

http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...

Interesting article on Apple and the magic tablet

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-rumored-tab...

Sweet device. I wonder if it will contain e-ink ala the Kindle? And will the e-ink be in color?

In a way, I feel that the market has been rotating sectors more frequently. Whatever is overvalued is left alone and the undervalued ones will rally.

So I would focus more on sectors or individual stock pickings rather than such a big index average.
Of course come Feb or March...ha...then I can play the S&P500 again.

The S&P500 and all sectors move more coherently starting from the bottom...simply because all were equally undervalued....However, for now it is just not the case.

By the way John....

No one gets their comment removed from this blog (or mine... not that anyone comments there LOL), just for stating their opinion. Your opinion is welcome, just like everyone else. This blog is both a bull and bear blog, open to all traders. Anna, Jack or myself do not remove comments that are simply stating an opinion.

Only trolls that offer nothing but nonsense or something that offends the other commenter's are removed. We still value free speech here. In the after hours like now, you can go off subject and talk freely. We all like to get to know each other, and share our thoughts.

For example, Lester (one of our regulars) posted yesterday that his dad passed away. Of course that's not related to the market, but everyone here cares about each other and certainly wouldn't remove any comment like that. We all offer our condolences.

So, the point is... every posts mainly talks about our thoughts on the market, but sometimes go off subject. Keep posting, as I enjoy speaking with other educated people.

Red

I'll second that.

I'm watching 1110 closely, because under one bullish scenario I've constructed, the successful clearing of 1110 has opened up a rapid rise to 1283 without many stops in between. If that level manages to hold for the weeks to come, I would be aggressively long.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_HI9vMxcgcpQ/Szq8KV3QD...

The ISEE readings today were quite shocking because it took the averages way down. Bottom line: Expect any pullback to be short-lived.

The New Moon trade of Mid December (buy TZA, wait 11 days, sell TZA) has been a spectacular bust. It's an 11 day event with two days remaining, but so far, TZA is down roughly 12%.

In spite of all this, based on the green TZA bars today and yesterday, there is some hope that TZA might make some sort of come back for these next two days.

Then, the Full Moon trade starts. Theory has it that TNA does well after a full moon. Theories may not be worth much these days :)

I do think TZA will make a comeback. My conservative estimate is 10 on Thursday. It will go up a lot more when institutions start selling.

Dreadwin, I like your thinking and hope you are right. Rut is showing some fatigue.

Charting $RUT:$RVX with bollinger bands gave me a sell signal on $RUT. We'll know by next week whether it is a corrective or an impulsive move.

dreadwin, was this sell signal today?

The signal came on Monday. The previous sell signal was wiped out by the low volume ramp-up last week. (i.e. your new-moon/full-moon model probably could have worked if not for the lack of volume).

In this low volume environment, anything can happen. I'd feel much better about the signal if the volume wasn't so weak.

I own lots of TWM--mostly because I own a lot of longs. "Low volume environment", are you sure?, just kidding.lolz.

Earl, I thought of you tonight as I was finishing up raking leaves in my yard. I looked up and there it was, a full moon. My thought was I wonder what Earl would have to say about this and low and behold you posted. I am still in my TZA at cost of 10.34. I am content to hold it for a while.

$RUT doesn't seem to have anything in the way of support until the 610/605 area. If I'm right about this scenario (fingers crossed), TZA could quickly move to 11, but we need to see volume.

gcocks, I also have some leaves I need to rake, but they are covered with snow at the moment (Illinois) :)

I sold my TZA earlier, so I avoided some pain when it fell further. It's difficult to know whether and when to jump back in, or just to let it go and focus on the Full Moon trade. Tough market to trade.

Most days lately I've written some really boring posts on my blog. I guess I'm about as bored with the market as Anna and all of you are... Tonight's post however is interesting as I'm in a bitching mood, so I let it "all hang out". So, If you feel like reading my thoughts about the market, and other subjects... please drop by. It might spark a fire in you, or piss you off... I don't know?

http://www.RedDragonLeo.com

Leo,

The government will end up with the ability to shut down the internet. They need to be able to stop the enemy from using the internet to communicate during a sustained attack.

They government can already shut down highways, power grids, phone systems, and I suppose everything else. This is just more of the same.

The real problem I have with this is our general disinterest in killing the enemy before they kill us.

This "kill the enemy before they kill us" idea is in the movie Dark Knight. Should we or should we not blow up the other boat?

The best if unlikely outcome would be if no boats get blown up. But if they are going to blow us up, we should blow them up. But if we blow them up, how do we know we won't blow up too? What we do know is that the real jokers in this world (who wouldn't burn their wealth) want us to blow up each other enough so that they can profit. Think war as a racket. With this comment, I'm not saying you're right or wrong necessarily. All I'm saying is keep this in mind before you decide to blow up the other boat.

We shouldn't be fighting anyone, but as you mentioned, "War" is all about profits for the "Powers that Be"... which are called the Illuminati, by the way. I've spent the last week or so watching video's on a site called www.ProjectCamelot.org. You should too... if you really want to know "how deep the rabbit hole goes"

I'll spend some time there if you spend some time playing chess with me. You can move as infrequently as one move every other day.

Man... and I thought I was bored!

I take that as an indirect way of saying no :-(

If I have time, I'll play the game. I'm not good at it, but I know how to play.

I take that as a yes, but not yet :-)

Random question: Do you have an hunter-gather survival skills?

I'm teaching Anna how to play. There's a great resource for the two of you at ChessOps:

http://www.eudesign.com/chessops/basics/index.htm

Raised will raise the minimum: At least one move every three days. Let's set it up now, and move later. Mind creating a username for yourself on gameknot.com? Mine is mitchmitchell.

Lonely, yes, but, no, not bored. Far from it. I wouldn't be staying up all night if I were bored.

vision_invisible made this comment on ES the other day in reply to a comment like yours:

I live in the deep south and to say that it is the problem of "dem immigrants" is ridiculous. Many of the people around here go to buffets to make themselves numb with food, and then listen to Hannity to stir the natives out of the lull they are in. Many people are living on food stamps, and maxed out credit cards. Everybody around here has a truck that guzzles gas. Nobody lifts a finger if they don't have to, and portly round bodies wander shopping malls in search of the next purchase before plopping in front of the TV to fill their minds with garbage. Diabetes and heart disease are the norm.

We as a society gorged on debt and consumption, built an unsustainable society with huge homes, huge trucks, and huge appetites all requiring massive amounts of oil. When the well dries we're f'd and we know have to lie to ourselves that this is about religious ideas and the Constitution. Since when did the Constitution mean anything - the Fed surely is an abomination which nobody cares about, and I seen our govt regularily trammel over our rights, our constitution, to protect us from "the enemy."

The answer from the overlords at the Fed is more money printing and more wars, which means more jobs in the military complex that makes weopons of destruction. There is always somebody to fight. This is wrong.

WWI - not about religion. WWII - not about religion, 70 million deaths. Korean War - Forgotten War - not about religion, 2 million deaths. Vietnam - not about religion, 2 million deaths. Iraq - not about religion, 1 million deaths. This is a short list, there are many more interventions. If you want less death let's start with the Fed and the CIA and the military complex which is created for continual battle.

Some of these wars were loosely based on ideology like fascism, communism, or taking down a state which was seen as "unfriendly to our interests." The usual us/vs them hatred thrown in, and sometimes an idea of "self-presevation" (if we don't get rid of them, they will wipe us out"). In almost all cases, parts of the govt saw war as an aim in and of itself and the people who most benefited were the war makers and bankers.

You only have to read into this message a little to catch the tribal nature of the thought process that drives war. The "black vs white" dialogue. The idea that the major difference between two people is color of skin, two tribes, and that tribes getting together will cause strife - and is of predictive value on success of marriage. Last I remember, marriage was about hard work, sacrifice and patience with another human being (which you may term "love" if you will). The genes that confer those qualities will make for a suitable life-partner, more than any that drive melanin or muscle-tone.

This whole religious thing is a big fat hoax. It is more of the same tribal thinking. All it takes is the occasional wacko in an airplane for us to conclude those dark-skinned types over there want to kill us all, and it is all about the religious thought - when that may be (and happens to be) farthest from the truth. Below I read that "all the good muslims" died in a Assyrian tribal genocide of 100 years ago, and therefore all the rest are therefore evil wanting to kill us all. So let's bomb them without impunity!

These types of illogical, sleight-of-hand messages need to be deconstructed otherwise people get confused. The way I see it, this is more of the same tribal thinking that is so dangerous.

Who's us? Who's them? Was WWI the Axis versus the Allies? Or was WWI actually the international bankers versus the nations they set up to fight each other?

Haven't you learn anything about our Government. They know what is best for us. I liked most of the post. Sunday on Meet The Press Newt Gingrich said "First we had the tech bubble, then we had the housing bubble, and then the wallstreet bubble. I think the next bubble is going to be the Government bubble." I tend to agree with him.

And I thought Microsoft had a monopoly... the Government has the biggest monopoly of all... they own everything now!

Yes and look where that has gotten us in the past! Medicare, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, etc.
Term Limits would help but would you ever vote yourself out of a great job with it's own private health care and retirement. Don't forget the Gov't stuck it to Microsoft also.

You've opened up my eye's now... I should run for public office. I'd get the best health insurance, retirement, raises every year... I'd have it made! Now all I have to do is to go out and get caught with a hooker and some drugs in my possession. That would make head line news, which I could then say how sorry I am, and then get elected because everyone will remember who I am when they vote.

I can provide both.

Leo

We all feel your frustrations with this economy and market. But I personally would not have condoned portraying W Bush as Hitler and I am about as liberal as they get. And if Iraq did not bring to mind images of the blitzgreig of Europe ... Some images are best left to history and alone.

And if you wish I am totally good with Anna removing this post. No disrespect intended.

John

No disrespect taken... but that's Obama in the picture, not Bush.

Thank you Leo. Just that the further out on the bell curve are opinions are perceived, the smaller our audience.

That's absolutely true John, and that's exactly why I created my own blog... to publish my own thoughts. So, yes... you can say that the amount of people that are what you might call "conspiracy theorist" is a small number. Never the less, some of those conspiracy theory's are true.

So when does a conspiracy no long become a conspiracy... when it is accepted as true by the mainstream public. When will that happen? When everyone is UN-employed and has the time to read posts like mine and many others on the Internet. Then my posts will have a large audience, and not be considered radical anymore.

That should be about when the market starts falling off a cliff within a year or so! Of course by then, a "National CyperSpace Emergency" will be declared and no one will be able to read my posts anyway... so, what the hell! I'll publish my thoughts now before their censored by the "mainstream" society.

Leo

I will admit that this discussion is intriguing. I cannot remember the last time that I posted anywhere a comment that was not directly related to the market.

Little of the text on your blog offended me. However the portrayal of Obama as Hitler was over the line. What really worries the crap out of me is that Obama is extending Bush's policies. Since they are two diametrically opposed individuals the only logical reason is that there is something(s) buried under an ultra top secret level stamp that we are not privy too. That worries me a lot.

Just goes to show that even liberals are not immune to conspiracy theories!

I'd put McCain's face on it if he had won, or Bush if it was still during his term. It makes no difference as both candidates are "bought and paid for". One of my first posts showed a chart where all the campaign funds came from for both candidates. Look at this chart and tell me if you think the banks don't control these guys. Our only hope at the time was Ron Paul.

http://reddragonleo.com/2009/09/13/obama-or-mcc...

Point well taken. I voted for Obama and I had hoped for better ...

I wanted a change too, just not what Obama is giving us, or what McCain would have.

Man, does that ever sum it up perfectly. Interesting chain of emails, guys, thanks.

Glad you like it... I need to air it out sometimes!

Might as well use free speech while we've still got it.

It's going to be gone sooner then we think Jack...

I fear you may be right.

Ron Paul is still working hard to audit the Fed... let's hope he succeeds!

He looks like the last true liberal in America. That is using liberal in the original sense of 'believer in social and economic freedom' of course.

How that word ever got hijacked by enthusiasts for big government is a mystery.

Yeah... the term "Liberal" some how got twisted as radical. Another way that they control our thoughts. The two party system should be destroyed... it's time for real change, not a the same ol' "head's they win, tail's you lose" choices.

'Liberal' is radical. It just should mean radical like Ron Paul rather than radical like Ted Kennedy.

I'm a radical liberal in the Ron Paul sense. I personally think the best solution would be to restrict the vote to taxpayers and wives and husbands of taxpayers.

I think the best way to implement that would be to disenfranchise anyone deriving the majority of their income from the state for as long as that remained the case.

Very true.

ROTFLMAO!

Nice rant Leo! I like to vent sometimes myself and I find it's getting more frequent!

Not to set you off, but you should read up on the presidential order signed by our imperial leader on December 16th that effectively nullified your (and my) 4th amendment rights! This gave Interpol full operating ability in the US with no regard for due process! So much for sovereignty!

Keep your head up though. The American people will prevail!

Yeah, I read that somewhere too... Most people don't even know that the "Patriot Act" allows the government to walk into your home and arrest you, without charging you of any crime, and hold you indefinitely... without any rights to see a lawyer.

I'm gonna have a drink for you Red:-)

Thanks ol' buddy... I was hoping someone cared!

Hi Anna,

I'm a recent visitor and commented once I believe.

I'm sure you covered this, but I am also interested in trading more FX. Do you have some information on your site about the time frame you're looking at, the signals you're using and how you view risk management?

I'm currently short the AUD, but that is to hedge some earnings in-country. Would like to trade some other pairs.

Thanks in advance for any advice you can give.

John

Closed long ES's and went short @ 1120.00

This feels like an imminent sell off brewing.

Wasn't that today:-)

Yeah, seems like everyday the past month. :)

More to come. This was SOP back in 07/08 by most of the firms:-)

Reuters reporter Jonathan Stempel writes this afternoon that the Employees’ Retirement System of the Virgin Islands has sued Morgan Stanley (MS) alleging the firm sold the fund on a collateralized debt obligation made up of subprime mortgages whose risk Morgan played down.

The suit says Morgan Stanley enlisted Moody’s (MCO) and Standard & Poor’s to trump up the rating on the CDO while at the same time shorting the underlying assets.

A dyslexic man walks into a bra.

Bada Dum:-)

Hi Gang,

I am currently watching MT for a possible short entry. It is currently overbought. The daily RSI is at 80 and the weekly at 68.

47 looks like a good entry area. 47.12 is also the 200 MA on the weekly. Like any other stock, it should pullback 5-10% after the first time it hits the 200 MA-

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=mt

Appreciate others input.

Looking at the chart I can see why you would want to short MT. I personally would wait until I saw some weakness in the chart. At this point I would put that stock into a 2hot2handle category for shorts until it showed slower upward momentum.

2 cents for what it's worth.

John,

I've had a really good look at treasuries tonight & modified my view somewhat. It will be the header post tomorrow.

Dear Jack,

Is it possible that USD is in b of iv of 1, i.e., iii of 1 completed at 78.44 and a (wave) of iv of 1 finished at 77.50. If so, b (wave) of iv of 1 might finish at 78 which may coincide with a 1% correction in S&P (?end of wave 4 of 5 of C of P2) and c of iv of 1 could end at 77, which may coincide with a top in indices around Jan 4-5th (?wave 5 of 5 of C of P2). The wave v of 1 in USD might start around Jan 4-5th IMO.

Yes, but I think my preferred alternate count would be that we are in d of iv of 1, from looking at the EURUSD 30 min chart. You can see why here:

http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...

My primary count at the moment is that we have started wave e though. We'll see which is right over the next couple of days.

Thank you Jack. You do know that I respect your analysis a bunch.

You're welcome John. It looks like treasuries may be the big story of Q1 2010, so it is worth a very good look & everyone pooling their ideas. :-)

Jack

As stated earlier there is a huge divergence in analyst's opinions as to where the 10 year treasury notes are heading in 2010 ( MS vs. GS). IMO we could see a 50 - 110 bp increase in the yield of the 30's.

But as we have discussed in the past I am like a moth to the flame ...

I still think we could go 200. Much depends on the strength of the USD wave 3 and what happens while that is playing out.

I think we'll see 50 - 110 bp at minimum.

No matter what I am adding to my 50 calls tomorrow. And since the JAN 2011 calls are selling at a small premium to the MAR 50's ... you know the rest.

Time to get seriously long. First time since HGSI in late October.

Would you e m a i l to me your address at jtrobertsrochesterny at gmail dot com?

John

Done.

I like fib fan lines too. Here is my favorite: a combination of fib fans drawn from the 1930's low to the 2007 top and a fib retracement series drawn to the same top originating from the plateau generated by the late 1960s to early 1980s doldrums.

http://screencast.com/t/OGQ4YWIxNTIt

I love anything fibs Ed, that's nice :)

Anna, the tape is crazy. It had been so long since I saw a red candle in IYR that I couldn't believe my eyes today! I'm pretty sure we're going to slowly sell off for the rest of the week (look at IYR and $RUT as 'leaders').

Beyond that, it's really hard to say! Treasury bond yields have been pumped up pretty high, which is bad news for any sort of "less bad" housing scenario. It wouldn't surprise me to see a backtest of the breakout in $TNX.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=1&...

Hi Dread, gosh is it ever?? It's gotten to the point of not knowing what to do.
At least in FX you can get more clear signals! Equities are just a crap shoot.
I am long the TBT right now, so I hope you are right :) Have a good night

I look at fib fan lines as well, sometimes they provide serious resistance/support, sometimes they're useless.

Oh well thought I would try something new :)

Like anything else they're another tool in the drawer, they DO have value at times.