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Dec
09

Dull Doji Day Wednesday?

Posted by . Comments.

Hi Hobsters!

I was trying to think of possible scenarios today and basically this was about as good as I could get. (which isn’t that great!)
We slightly open higher to either 1095 or 1100 area and then chop around and fill gap and end the day with a yes a doji.
this is just a small bounce within a corrective wave. So it is going to be rather boring if you ask me…
We might go up to 110.47 VWAP or even possibly 111.25 before heading lower.

spy 15 min

Dollar was down overnight, a technical bounce before heading higher. I think we have a short squeeze beginning that will correct the $DXY to some key levels before resuming it’s down trend.

Gold is flat but I think it’s not quite done going down yet. Oil was much higher overnight and is loving it’s punch as I type.

I still believe Gold has to retrace to around 1080 before going higher. Good luck to everyone today :)

This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 9th, 2009 at 8:18 am by . Filed under: Uncategorized. Tagged as: . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • john
    JDSU options trade:

    JDSU is up 8% in the month of December. The stock has experienced 2 significant gaps up - December 1st and December 4th. Currently the stock is trading at $8.14. The January 9 calls are around $0.30. The January 10 calls are selling at $0.15. Currently the put/call ratio is around 3% (530 puts vs. ~15000 calls at the $9 strike price) which indicates that traders on the street are expecting a move above $9. Going into a January 9/10 bull call spread costs only $15 per contract. The risk - reward for this trade is $1 maximum loss per a $4 maximum gain if JDSU closes at $10 on option expiration in January.

    Please note that I have been long the underlying security since late November.
  • flyboy08
    AOL IPO tomorrow?! What a joke. Does anyone use AOL today?

    This market would trade their mothers if they could make a buck from them:-)GREED!
  • springheel_jack
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  • Looks like I miss some wild swings up and down today, but overall the market was only slightly up. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few days. I'm still looking for a down move, as the market still looks weak too me.
  • AAPLbroke above 196-197 at the EOD with good volume. Could run up to 199-200 and should see some correction at those levels.
  • nyxjf
    did you see the aapl AH?
  • It was up 0.50. Google finance's quote is incorrect.
  • nyxjf
    I see it down 5 bucks on Tos & yahoo.
  • Look at the trades before 20:01

    The trade at 20:01 is probably a trade which happended during today's regular trading. It happens all the time!

    http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradi...
  • nyxjf
    Hah! you're right. I was giddy for no reason dammit..
  • :-)
  • It was up 0.50. Google finance's quote is incorrect.
  • Looks like a gap up tomorrow. Europe and Asia (especially Hang Seng) are due for a bounce and that will bump up our futures. JMHO
  • This is some one else's chart (I swiped it from some one who swiped it from some one on Slope of Hope):

    http://img245.imageshack.us/img245/5150/spx5min...

    The implication is that we hit the top of the channel then turned down.
  • Thank you :-) I will keep an eye on that 1096 level tomorrow.
  • The breadth was also weak -- small caps and real estate closed red. I'm staying short, as I think this was a fake move designed to force weak bears to cover their positions before an overnight reversal.
  • dark1p
    Don't know if any of you were here this morning when folks were discussing Spain and Greece. Just saw this headline from Mish...to which the answer will ultimately be a very loud 'no', I'm afraid, not as Euroland...

    "EU Ready to Bailout Greece; Debt Downgrades in Baltic States; Can Euroland Even Survive?"
  • TheMacroEconomist
    Beware of any finance minister who says, "No we are not a new Iceland, just like we are not the new Dubai."

    http://in.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idI...

    Does anyone really think that Greece can cut spending with riots in the streets and a new Socialist government in power?

    Shows the problems trying to regulate the Euro even if it does survive.
  • Where is Kemal? Would love to hear his opinion :-)
  • AS2009
    Kemal - you out there ?

    Pra - what are you holding ?
  • Nothing. As I mentioned before, I closed all my puts yesterday and went to 100% cash. I was planning to try some puts at 1100, which we never reached today. We are in no mans land! This could go up to 1105-1110 or down to 1080-1085 IMO
  • jjblacksheep
    Pra, I think we'll see 1110 a lot sooner than 1080.
  • very well could be. However, I am thinking this week will be a down week. As I said, we are in no mans land :-)
  • ClutchShorter
    Before I jump into trading ES futures in my TOS account, I figure I solicit input from more experienced traders. I understand that there is leverage in trading the ES. It's about $1050 for 1 ES contract in TOS for daytrading. Now, what are some measures you guys/gals take to prevent owing more than what you have in your account other than stop losses. Don't trade overnight? Don't trade more than a certain amount of contracts?
  • Earl of
    TNA seems to be muddling along. I remain (softly) bullish on TNA, although good reasons are hard to find.

    TNA did close above it's 7-day average -- not a compelling feat, but it's something.

    On the side of caution is a gap that sits just 3 cents below the TNA LOD. Filling that gap tomorrow seems reasonable, if TNA drops again. On the other hand, it was almost there yesterday (missed by 15 cents), so who knows. In one day it got 12 cents closer. Just doesn't sound like a sure thing.

    Overall -- blah. I feel almost nothing.

    Todays action did reinforce the notion that TZA bottomed out (and TNA topped out) 3 days ago. Maybe I'm just stubborn, but I still don't buy it.
  • For confirmation of TZA's trend, I would really like to see IWM close below the 50 day moving average. We've touched the 50 day MA a few times, and stayed under it for a while today (that hasn't happened since last Thursday).

    I think we're stuck in no man's land for a while until gaps get closed on TNA at 35.96 (last Thursday) and 34.38 from Nov. 30th. Once that happens, I'll most likely go long TNA via calls.
  • gcocks83
    Tomorrow is another day. Hope you have a great night. Again, I say this is a very tough market to trade. I need to keep an open mind about looking at ohter things besides TNA and TZA. There is usually a sector that is doing well. I actually would like to see the VIX go up and get things moving around a little more. I also understand the cross road you are at with the bottom and top. When the market is being artifically inflated logic is out the window.
  • sunset_atl
    sure would like to hear from kemal
    he makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside
  • TheCrowe
    "Like climbin' up the rope in gym class" - Garth
  • lester
    anna, hope you feel better. Just had a close call with my boss. He visited my office and wondered what I was hiding that had pink background. Questioning my sex I think...
  • TransworldDepravity
    He probably thought you were looking at a p--- site. Did he see your minimize tab with "HOT...." lmao
  • lester
    I think so
  • sunset_atl
    he probably won't fire you for the website
    what will probably do it is when he see the P&L in your trading account
  • ChickenLittle
    Maybe he will give a larger bonus?
  • TheMacroEconomist
    Did you see the hot pink trendlines I put on a USO chart last week?

    HOB's rubbing off on all of us. ;)
  • sunset_atl
    he can't fire you for being a transexual !
  • lester
    I knew was inviting trouble with that comment....
  • I will be shorting AAPL above 205. Today was fairly obvious that AAPL would turn around if you were watching momentum indicators like MACD and RSI.

    GS also looks like a good long.
  • sunset_atl
    if this is just a correction to the upside, key fibs i'm watching on AUD (/6AZ9)
    0.9121
    0.9159
    0.9183

    only reason it is dingo (aud) is because that's the one i like to trade, largely b/c it kicks off around 7pm eastern.

    of late it has technically looked easier to translate, although it has become a bit muddy.

    these fibs would fit a deep 2nd wave retracement in what is known as a flat for you EW'ers. fwiw, the subwaves could be very whippy

    a "heavy" break of today's AUD low would bode well for USD and the bearish equity case, although not a slam dunk if one of the subwaves turns out to be another flat. in fact, a hard break could be one of the biggest waves down in AUD - a third wave of a third wave.
  • TheMacroEconomist
    Yes this is what I pointed out below with the Heatmap. The com-dollars 6A and 6D did a lot better than I'd have thought during the day today, given where the energies and the metals wound up.
  • sunset_atl
    yes, and i was taking the heat
  • TheCrowe
    To those playing AAPL, alot of momo players trading aapl today, and if you don't believe it, look at the close and see the drop. In short some of aapls volume was trumped up and short term...
  • lester
    I was not playing AAPL today but I just looked at the chart. I do not see any drop, just a ramp.
  • TheCrowe
    It is literally in the last two minutes of trading...There's a gravestone doji on the 5 minute chart as the last candle... You have to look at 1 or 5-min charts... :)
  • SRS closed green. It is fighting up against the 8.35 resistance line. Tomorrow is IMO do-or-die for SRS. It has been my experience with IYR that when it gets very close to strong resistance/support, look for two strong moves in consecutive days. The first one is often a fake move. In the last hour of trading, SRS set a new low for the day then turned around and nearly set a new high on the highest volume candle of the day.

    TZA found support at yesterday's closing price and also finished the day green. Both of these ETFs were up in spite of the SPY being up .37%!

    IMO, the bearish case is still alive.
  • gcocks83
    You still think we get to 11.88 on TZA soon? I was looking at the chart on TNA. Using Pivot Points, I had S1 at 36.72 and PP at 37.68. It traded right in this channel twice today. Earl stated he played both of those lows. Do you see this as a valid entry point for TNA?
  • We bounced high off of IWM's 50 day MA twice. If you are bullish, those are places to go long TNA. I'm not as familiar with the TNA chart, as it has been messed up by the dividend distribution.

    If you are bearish, one of those bounces off of IWM's 50 day MA is going to fail, and fail badly. We did manage to stick to the MA for an extended period the second time around, which suggests to me that it is ready to go through.

    I don't use Pivot Points in this trading environment. There have been too many gaps up and down in the last few weeks. However, those numbers would have worked pretty well today!

    11.88 on TZA is the 20 EMA calculated after yesterday's close. We came within 17 cents of it today. The number for tomorrow based on today's close is 11.85.
  • gcocks83
    Thanks, I appreciate your opinion. I am trying to learn the IWM movements better.
  • TheMacroEconomist
    Today the speculators all piled into Nasdaq. QQQQ up 1% let by AAPL and their iTablet.

    Meanwhile the Russell got left in the dust, IWM down on the day.
  • On a candlestick chart (like stockcharts.com) compare the rounded top we're forming on IWM with what happened in Sept, Oct, and the middle of Nov. That will give you a pretty good idea of the price movement I'm expecting.
  • dark1p
    Bye, Patti!

    Good night, everyone.....and remember, not only is tomorrow another day, so is the day after! Great how that works. :-)
  • prozor7
    I won't be able to post tomorrow (on a trip)
    I'm expecting gap down on SPY @ 109.53

    pay attention to XLF 14.39 and SPY 110.35 busting with confidence

    and don't forget 8:30 Unemployment Claims, Trade Balance

    good night to all we have some nice calls with that attitude we can't lose money :)
  • TransworldDepravity
    I agree with XLF, definately lagged all day. Good assessment.
  • ptthaas71
    night prozor, and hope we can get our DOWNtime tomorrow :)
  • TheMacroEconomist
    The winter storm pull down as much cold air as forecast, sending Nat Gas futures to the top of the bears hit list. The oil complex and the metals weren't far behind.

    An on the bulls side, interesting that the com-dollars (AUD, CAD) did as good as they did, while the Nasdaq far outpaced the Russell 2k.

    http://www2.barchart.com/heatmap.asp?&p=Overall...

    (Great futures heatmap but it would be better w/o the 30-min delay!)
  • sunset_atl
    nice heat map
    yield curve steepening a bit more it looks
    not sure what that means
    inflation expectations ?
  • TheMacroEconomist
    US growth expectation. If it looks like the US economy will pick up sooner than later, 4.4% on the 30-year bond isn't going to cut it. ;)

    This hits me a bit with TIP ETF shares securing the trading account. So a fair fraction of the nice USO short today got offset by the drop in TIP (less drop than for 30-year bonds at least).

    On the other hand: Bernanke reiterated a low interest rate policy the other day...
  • sunset_atl
    You saying this is where you park the cash at night or when not in use?

    "This hits me a bit with TIP ETF shares securing the trading account"
  • TheMacroEconomist
    Right a good chunk of the buying power is secured by TIP the past few months, which I don't actively churn. I need more kick than either 3/4% CDs or 1/4% on free cash. ;)

    The way forward is to hedge it with options. It's a bit premature attm IMHO because Dubai shows there could still be a nasty surprise or two. On a risk bid, the dollar is up AND the Treasuries are up.
  • alexnewbee
    for me it was a great day. I went short gold at 1140 and closed at 1123, also small long in DAX, but this was just for fun.
    wish everybody good night
  • ptthaas71
    Oh well, just learned another lesson. Don't even think about holding ES over night unless you are prepared to take HUGE swing stops and no sleep. Got stoped out of my ES, with a loss of 112.00. No wins today :(
    Bye & see ya tomorrow!
  • Brian_mk
    sorry Patti. Hugs take care and have a good night.. see ya tomorrow with bells on :)
  • ptthaas71
    Night sweet Brian :)
  • sela84
    see you all tomorrow. SELA84 out
  • Chrys
    Could someone please explain the significance of those SPY candles with long tails? A down draft?
  • thanks allot of negative garbage tonight need to regroup :) love you all
  • wycfitz
    Don't worry Anna, tomorrow is another day ;-)
  • thanks lovey see you in a bit :)
  • Brian_mk
    take care dear.. feel better. Tomorrow is another day :)
  • yes, got yanked by my ponytail along with a bunch of us...luv ya
  • Brian_mk
    ygm ... I'd take the ponytail out so they can't yank it anymore :)
  • springheel_jack
    I'll be doing an evening post in an hour or so as Anna's not feeling well.

    Hopefully I'll have the USD update at stockcharts by then.
  • yes thanks Jack :)
  • TheMacroEconomist
    Feel better Anna !!!
  • ptthaas71
    What happened to Anna Jack?
  • Right here, Jack putting kids to be LOL
  • ptthaas71
    got worried :(
  • stomache troubles at this second...but I will be ok love you ;)
  • ptthaas71
    you need some rest Miss Anna, please go and take a break from all of this Have a good evening! :)
  • sunset_atl
    hope you feel better, we wuv u !
  • luv you too :)
  • dark1p
    spent a lifetime with those....no fun.

    feel better.
  • noooooooooo very wobbly right now :)
  • jjblacksheep
    Going out net short anticipating going net long tomorrow or Friday. Today was pretty fun, hope all of you have a good night. I'm about to open up some Killian's Irish Red and fry a buttload of Gulf shrimp :)
  • wycfitz
    Aw that's just plain wrong, beer here in Peru sucks, would love to have a killian's right now.
  • Unicorn
    Does anyone see a rise as high as 1140 before we turn?
  • Squidman
    Yes, more shake and bake thru Friday, Santa Rally starts Monday.
  • Unicorn
    I hope the shake and bake really happens tomorrow. But if we rise over 1100 with good volume tomorrow, I donno if the 1070-80 move is still in play.
  • springheel_jack
    Very possible before new year, but we may just stay in the SPX rectangle until then.
  • sela84
    hell with aapl will see tomorrow.....need a smoke
  • wycfitz
    Sorry Sela, if it makes you feel better I'm in the red on a few holdings also :-(
  • TransworldDepravity
    I got a secret hiding place for my Jim Bean here in the office so such occasions.
  • sunset_atl
    only if you share
  • TransworldDepravity
    bring your own coaster
  • ptthaas71
    I feel bad Sela, please next time place a stop not to lose so much. Try & have a good night, tomorrows another day :)
  • sela84
    will follow your advice thanks, have a good rest of the day and don't forget to come back tomorrow :)
  • ptthaas71
    Will do, :)) Good night!
  • dark1p
    Now that sounds good. Never during work hours, though, for me.
  • sela84
    ahhahaha, going to fridge grab a beer and before i open it i'll give big kiss to my girl. lost battle today but war is not over yet;)
  • prozor7
    Zlatorog Pivo (Zlatorog beer:)
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