Hobster Family I sincerely want to wish each and everyone of you and your loved one’s and critters (of course) a heartfelt and blessed  Thanksgiving!!!

We have been up fully for just one month and it has been a blast.  The intelligence and wise friendliness on HOB has made it a force to be reckoned with. That is because we are a team and work that way to make HOB a winner.

I won’t make wrap up long as most folks are heading out, but I still think we have 1121 in play before heading south.

Oil Gold rocketing up today Gold to new highs (wish I had kept those calls)  Oil had a nice run up allot of us had call options on USO so congrats to all and Equities seemed to go nowhere, even though the $DXY hit new lows and right now is still at for the year.

I still have 1121 in play before we really retrace let’s say around to 1045

Have a beautiful day tomorrow each and everyone in all countries

IF THIS RALLY EVER DOES END …….

Some thought provoking charts today. First off there is the updated range topping chart after an amazing twelve closes in this range. If we don’t break to the upside soon, and there is little sign of that happening before a retracement IMO, then we will break down from here, most likely next week:

The next chart is of BGU, the Direxion Daily Large Cap Bull 3x ETF mapped against the SPX over the last few months. See how very well it has followed the SPX up. As it is a 3x ETF, it has almost quadrupled while the SPX has rallied 65%:

http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack/folders/09Q4/media/338d40b5-b4e2-4e32-9d0b-043fb9b1cdef

The last chart is of BGZ, the Direxion Daily Large Cap Bear 3x ETF, the mirror twin of BGU mapped against the SPX over the last few months:

http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack/folders/09Q4/media/2b07a88f-1fc9-4163-ab4a-b1bb7834d42c

Now BGZ has fallen by a factor of seven while BGZ has risen by a factor of four, but compared to most leveraged ETFs, these two have mirrored their indices very faithfully. If this is a rally and not a bull market, and as and when the rally finishes, BGZ will look like a very good buy and would seem likely to quadruple on the path down to a new low on SPX.

Thought for the day…….

NOTES FOR TODAY:

It looks very much as though we will gap up on SPX today, and if the gap up is over yesterday’s range of max 1108 on SPX cash, as seems likely at the time of writing, then the SPX is likely to continue to run in the direction of the gap. We may get a quick rise of several points into and shortly after the open.

Backing this up is the action on USD, which has made a new low at 74.44 overnight, against the previous low of 74.68. The next serious support is at 74 and we could reach that today:

http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack/folders/09Q4/media/5a7159fd-5936-4da8-bba6-4396243d6ee8

Vix was testing the previous low at 20.1 yesterday and looks likely to breach it or make a double low there today.

My feeling is still that we are making an important interim top this week, prior to correcting signficantly next week. That said, Thanksgiving week has thrown a serious spanner into the usual cycle, and the next swing down may be shorter as a result. Here is an ES forecast of how that decline might go from Alex Grant at www.AMBGTrading.com:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Q9FmRy5wUIs/SwyqWqJlL_I/AAAAAAAABRs/nBvFGEdRL9Y/s1600/ES+Forecast.bmp

I always keep half an eye on Alex’s ES forecast. It has been more accurate than not in recent months.

If we rise steeply after that decline, as suggested by Alex’s forecast, then we may be putting in the RS on the large potential H&S pattern that I was pointing out yesterday on the SPX 60 min. That could see a return to the 1090 – 1110 level by the end of December (depending on the level we top at this week):

http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack/folders/09Q4/media/a3a3bcd6-eebb-4e41-b8c9-15b00910d045

Good luck today everyone!