Hi Hobsters,

I am sooooo ready for

Thanksgiving and for that matter for the year to be over. This lately has just been tough to trade, but saying that I still have my 1121-23 in play if not this week, then sometime in DEC. I do think we are close to near term top, and we all keep spouting the same things over and over again and nothing really has changed.

For the short term ie: tomorrow, I will stay long, as today tape action shows allot of strength, the FED is not going to raise rates for a long time, and cheap money is in play, which means lower dollar and higher equities.

I do expect a nice retracement maybe next week, and will look for a minimum of 1070 area. then possible 1042. But that’s next week, I am a very short term trader, mostly day/swing so I do not try and guess what is going to happen too far out, too many things can happen.

I added quite a few trades today. Long USO, long DE, long TIF  short JCG and BCSI.  At this point scaling into some bearish trades. See my current trades page. I am with Kemal and have a price target of about 42 on USO.  Looks like JCG beat  (I had it right and I let someone talk me out of being long!) and BCSI is tanking.

Gold higher again Today, unreal but I still have a chart where the first of September on ES I mentioned Gold going to 1300 by EOY.

So all that being said, more volatility tomorrow, and we end higher IMHO. the strength today kept me long.  everyone have a great night, I am out tonight for a while and will be checking in.

You all are just the best bloggers out there and love your energy and input  :-D

Thanksgiving Week Chopfest – Tuesday Roadmap

I’m not really expecting any serious action on the downside in Thanksgiving week, although I am watching very carefully to see if anything interesting happens to the upside.

We failed to fill the opening gap yesterday for the third trading day in succession. That is very unusual, and on previous occasions that this has happened since 1998, a gap the next day has filled 79% of the time. Worth noting, though I wouldn’t wager the farm on it.

Yesterday the Dow made a new high and turned back exactly at the (rising) top trendline that it bounced off last week. This adds weight to my contention that the Dow is the key equities index here, and gives us today’s lowest risk target to short from in the event that equities rise today which would be within fifteen (Dow) points above where the Dow made a new intraday high.

http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack/folders/09Q4/media/c7b36d26-85e4-4302-94b9-b613e1898809

USD gave back some recent gains, but found solid support at 75 and is showing no sign of making a new low as yet. It is one to watch as if it does make a new low, the the path is open to new highs in equities very significantly higher that those we have seen so far:

http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack/folders/09Q4/media/64f86633-8964-4b33-9340-b0ada9d6d274

Vix is probably the most interesting indicator to watch right now. It has been pinned between two key interior trendlines for the last few days, and looks very much as though it is forming the right shoulder of an inverse H&S pattern indicating to 44. That would be extremely bearish for equities. On the other hand it is testing the lower of the interior trendlines and if it closes decisively below it then the next real support is at the lower trendline of the broadening bottom at about 17.5. That would be extremely bullish for equities. I will be watching the Vix very carefully. If it makes a new low then the bear case is history until after Xmas IMO.

http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack/folders/09Q4/media/011f2c23-b8dd-443d-a866-42f9e31c7272

Unless we do see a decisive move lower in USD or Vix though, the case that we are making an important interim top here (at least) still looks strong. We have been stuck within a topping range for eleven trading days now, and from where we are now, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see us spend the rest of this week within it as well:

http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack/folders/09Q4/media/aa5d0156-1c3d-4066-b7fa-67f2fb81d3a4

I posted a chart of the SPX 60 min yesterday showing two H&S patterns that may be forming on it. After a review this morning the shorter term one still looks alive, though the corresponding Dow pattern died with the new high yesterday and I am therefore very doubtful about the SPX analog:The larger one forming is however still very much in play, and fits in well with my view of how trading up until Xmas may develop. It would suggest that we will soon see a drop on SPX down to 1020 – 1040, followed by a rally to build the RS up to the 1100 (ish) area, then a descent to the 945 level in the new year. Another one to watch.

http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack/folders/09Q4/media/a3a3bcd6-eebb-4e41-b8c9-15b00910d045

Good trading everyone!