Nov

Thursday Bear Food Day

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Hi HOB-sters

The bears finally got some food! About time for them huh?

Wow what a day today was, we were down in the futures and like many of us predicted we had a retracement day today, the interesting thing however was that we hit 1085 on SPX my low for today ( I loaded up on DEC 110 spy calls) and we ended way off those lows. On /ES we closed the AH session @ 1087.50. IMHO that supports another bullish move for next week. Tomorrow might be chop and slop and end with a doji, but we will know tomorrow.

I feel along with many experienced traders that we see higher prices next week. Historically Tuesday and more so Wednesday is bullish going into OPX, so choose your trades carefully.

Gold finally retreated some today, and silly me closed the trade and I would have made money. I was up since dark this morning and was tired, but should have known better.

My best trades were going long the dollar which really popped today to a high of 75.76. I suspect we might give some of that back tomorrow.

Good evening and be back in a bit )

This entry was posted on Thursday, November 12th, 2009 at 9:23 pm by . Filed under: Anna's Spread Boutique. Tagged as: . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

annamall

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Richard

Anna,
Assume you saw my email. If not cool, no problem. Let me know.
Richard

annamall

just working on new post. I will check I was feeling sort of crummy yesterday
Gm Richard

Richard

No problem and GM. My wife got her shot the other day as well, felt bad after.

I'm passing on it: haven't had a flu shot in 15 years. I'm not convinced they can inoculate you against this year's morph of last year's virus. (Haven't had the flu in 15 years...no, there couldn't possibly be a correlation...)

jjblacksheep

My chart pattern scans are still showing the first bearish signals since the Jan-late Feb period. Bulkowski's own scan is starting to show a bearish watch as of yesterday (new signal, need confirmation) also. I'm about 50/50 long-short at the moment FYI. Good luck everyone.

annamall

GM JJ, a new butt short every morning hahaha
thanks for your input, I am positioned mostly long since we couldn't hold those lows yesterday.
:)

PRAMOD

GM Anna,

I think we close green today. Early weakness and then rally is my thinking. Mon-Tue next week might be down. What do you think?

AS2009

Pra - can you share why you are thinking this ... you and Anna are spot on when you predict this stuff can you share why you see that ?

PRAMOD

Hi Anji,

The Indian market (Sensex) has been more than 80% accurate in predicting the US indices. The senex closed up 0.9% today! I am thinking Mon-Tue down based on this ES forecast from AMBG trading, which has been pretty accurate as well-

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Q9FmRy5wUIs/SvuJUPMBU...

AS2009

I guess you call me Anji too now :)

So based on this forecast, it seems like the last 2 days met it ... however today is supposedly a fall to 1065 ? Am I reading this right ?

Where are you seeing the Mon / Tues down from this ...

PRAMOD

Think like this... it lags one day... so the fall might be Mon-Tue..... if the consumer confidence is down...then who knows what can happen... but my gut feeling is regardless of consumer confidence, even if it is not good, we close green.

I may buy some Dec calls on any weakness early in the day just for a day trade

annamall

new post pra :)

annamall

Agreed :)

jesterx

There is much talk about the US indicies and breakout above, and fair enough.

But I have noted today in doing some homework at just how weak some of the European markets are at present. Take the DAX (German market) for example.

=> http://s657.photobucket.com/albums/uu293/bigelk...

They look ripe for a move to the downside. I guess time will tell!!

springheel_jack

Dax looks a lot like RUT.

Only the Dow of the main indices has made a convincing new high.

Richard

And it's important to remember that:
(a) the Dow is only 30 stocks,
(b) the divisor is now down to 0.132319125 (from 30 at inception, and from 4.1xxxx in the late 70's), so
(c) a $1 change in a single Dow stock can move the average $7, and
(d) lots of funds and others with big holdings will mask their sales of SP and RUT stocks by buying IBM or MSFT (who wouldn't want to own them for the long-term?).

I think your point that the RUT is so weak is key.

loaf_of_bread

Sa2009 Your puts approach the judgement day.... friday comes and the market may plunge ....fill the gap good luck.

loaf_of_bread

The next 5 tradeing days are set up for a mini money plunge ,all the markets are set up for reversal , oil ,stocks , dollar ,gold a lttle, the crux pivot is 1080 which must be taken with force. then comes the gap at 1071 .opex is the drawing magnet. This is the best change since7months. It does not have to happen of course , but the set up is there. Even the bears are not ready for it for the most part, they are worn out. We will see ,be on your tippy toes.

humble1 (tm)

after that big, bad, ugly bear finished mauling those poor helpless salmon, he went on shore and laid down and slept. yes, he laid down and slept. and he snored as he slept hard.

what he didn't notice is that his foot is right in the middle of that BIG BEAR TRAP ms. market set yestitty.

as Uncle Remus has taught us, bears are not the smartest animals in the forest.

+ggggg+

:)))

springheel_jack

Bulls are mainly noted for aggression, horns and disproportionately oversized testicles.

No-one ever praises their intelligence. Bears are smart enough to hibernate in the winter and to have avoided being domesticated by outside forces mainly interested in breeding them for food.

Similar to the difference between a dog and a cat perhaps. The dog/bull will love the master/market unconditionally, but the cat's/bear's respect needs to be earned.

:-)

humble1 (tm)

you would dispute Uncle Remus?

springheel_jack

A true bear questions everything!

:-)

jesterx

ha ha great story...

but....

you are getting excited, the market has not really moved anywhere to tell us up or down yet....so its not use to claim your bullish thoughts.

As bulls and bears....always expect the unexpected..... and the bear is the smartest at the moment becuase we have just come up to a historical rally that has not really been seen before....do you think being bullish is very smart right now?? Do you think there is more risk or reward after reading this last statement

LOL. ;-P

humble1 (tm)

bullish now, yes. but that is easy for me since i am in a swing trade from
earlier this year with an average below SPX 750.

i am looking for an exit point; so far, i have found no reason to go flat
and wait for the next "buy". an ending UPSPIKE would do it for me.

jesterx

nice work

I hold no bearish of bullish view, the charts tell me what to do...i just see both sides and their cases for now.

humble1 (tm)

i have seen your comments here and elsewhere and i like your approach.

we'll see what happens into late next week, one of the most interesting Time
Windows i have seen this year.

jesterx

thanks humble...

i have been trading many years, and this is one of the most interesting times in that window...LOL.

Thanks...and good luck to you young chap. Tomorrow will be fun i assure you ;)

moxiong

I'm still an options newbie and have some questions for you guys.

do any of you use this site:
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/fi...
when picking option trades?

how often do these unusual activities precede big moves? would getting straddles on these stocks have a good chance of being profitable, assuming the IV is not high?

BalaB

Anna..LOL...I had no idea you ran a blog....Cool~!

I did a video of trading the ES opening range...High odds/low risk - If interested take a look:
http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/vid...

annamall

Bala Hi babe, (I can say that now) So happy you found me. Please visit often , you are one of my favorite traders
thanks for the link :)

PRAMOD

Anyone believes DIS will be a good short at 30.... They beat and still could not get over the resistance at 30 AH. If it fails to break above 30 tomorrow, I am thinking of shorting it for a gap fill.

Appreciate others input :-)

outsider99

Could be a double top forming like you said at 30, I also have a rising trendline that it broke last month that looks like it is retesting (trendline from April of this year) if it were to close above that (around 29.50) it might have a little more room to the upside. If it fails that, I could see a gap fill in the next few weeks. Just my 2 cents.

Guest

Thanks :-)

jesterx

here is an updated gold chart I am following. Its the December 09 Contracts though.

I am out of my longs for now....looks too dangerous up there.

Chart ==> http://s657.photobucket.com/albums/uu293/bigelk...

springheel_jack

Just using longs to hedge my shorts now. Too close to the top.

jesterx

both you and me buddy. A few longs...as a hedge.

Totally agree with you....the last top jack, was not a quick process but a rounding of up ups and downs..... i think we could get similar but I am on the notion we will see a another push up before tuesday. JMHO.

springheel_jack

I think Tuesday fits well as the turn date.

It might not last that long of course.:-)

jesterx

for sure dude. I think being 50% short as I am...feels ok just for now...dont want to overs expose myself.

I do agree with Kemal, this thing is really running on very low fumes now. But I play it how I see it. Good luck my friend.

springheel_jack

I'm back to 25% short from 75% this morning.

I'm expecting some more upside before we fall. I kept the 25% in case there wasn't. I'm hoping I won't regret cashing the rest later.

Still, what a profitable day. :-)

jesterx

congrats Jack buddy.

yes with more volatility in this market thats not a dumb thing. Big ranging days are what I like...and was a good day for me on Euro.

Plenty of time, and with OPEX next week anything is possible. A patient bear is a profitable bear IMO.

springheel_jack

True story mate. :-)

C C Rider

Technically speaking, only the dollar and vix look bullish.

http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance...

alphahorn

so this isn't bullish ;>)
http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde...

annamall

glad to see you CC and agree for now :)))

C C Rider

Hey Anna! This blog is blowing and going. What happened to Kirsten?

annamall

however Fuji is a regular here :)

Guest

Did you get some rest?

annamall

not really, but fed the critters, had a chance to make a list of stuff i needed and pick up a few things at the store. I think the H1N1 shot is making me feel a bit tired. but i will be A-ok thanks Pra :)

Romaitas

When I got my flu shot this year I passed out immediately when the needle broke my skin. I came to a few seconds later, lying on the floor with a chocolate in my mouth. I hate needles.

Get your beauty rest =)

TheCrowe

I once had to have an EKG after I nearly passed out from a shot...omg needle phobia... and I deal with kidney transplantation

jesterx

i feel the same way as you as soon as I go to my wallet and realise the bloody credit card is gone and so is my wife.

She is most likely at the shops blowing my money. This is probably worse than getting a flu shot.....LOL.

sdmooks

Getting the shot like pressing the yellow button! Get ejamakated Anna! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWfCnjnShnM

annamall

Sdmooks!!! that was hysterical, I laughed my butt off ....hahahahahaha thanks for sharing that :)

sdmooks

Don't get the vaccines Anna! Flu, HPV, anything, they are NOT good for
you. I'll provide plenty of links if you want to learn.

The crap they inject you with goes directly into your blood stream
(intraveneously) or right to your brain (mist). Your body has no chance to
filter out the bad stuff thru your GI tract.

Intestinal formula 1 & 2...do your DD ;) I cleanse every year.

https://web2.herbdoc.com/index.php?&c=1

Get well & Godspeed!

sdmooks

annamall

Hey CC, we have come full circle my friend, Ktz turned out to be sort of crazy. hehehe
My dear friend Keirsten is now David's muse :)

Kemal_1

Agree.

Kemal_1

Good evening

I was reviewing today's charts and noticed two very important things.

1. While the SPX and DJIA did not exceed yesterday's high, the Nasdaq Comp, NDX and transport EXCEEDED yesterday's high. In other words, there was a FAILURE final wave in the SPX and DJIA.

2. If one looks at the pattern from TODAY's high, there appears to be a downside wedge structure forming. To me, it looks like a nascent leading diagonal (LD) to the downside, which is in wave 4. Will have to see whether it finalizes in a valid manner.

I will post some charts later, maybe early tomorrow. Based on EURUSD and DXY, an intermediate term top is in. EUR/USD completed wave 3 of a first impulse down. In other words, the top is in.

Also, have a look at the weekly DXY chart, very informative IMO regarding in which direction the next move will go:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=W&yr=2&...

Be very cautious with any long positions in the stock markets. If the LD completes according to the rules, I will go 100% short upon the wave 2 retracement.

Good luck.

springheel_jack

Thanks kemal_1. What's your target for the wave 2 retracement?

Kemal_1

We have to wait for the wave 5 low of the LD. Could be around 1080. Take 78% of the distance between the wave 5 low and the start of the LD (1102).

So that would catapult SPX back to around 1096. Not sure whether this all happens on Friday. Personally, I would prefer the end of wave 2 on Monday (because I could re-load after funds clear).
Will see.

jamesmarkii

and if we just plow thru 1080 and continue down to 1020-1030....?

springheel_jack

I'm looking at 1040 as the initial target.

jamesmarkii

you are right about 1040
i was looking at something wrong
lol

springheel_jack

Now the really interesting part comes when we consider whether the rising wedges will be resolving.

First key target then is to break 956. After that the next massive support is at 875, which is the key support/resistance line for the bear market.

jamesmarkii

gotta break prior support lines from sept-oct-nov corrections

1029
1019
991
978

then 956

jamesmarkii

well a flat top= market drop (its a double top)
support line (range) is the range of both bottoms
SPY 101.99-103.08

springheel_jack

Yes, but I'm looking at the lower trendline of the expanding wedge on the Dow to see if it breaks down like the others already have.

If it does then these patterns will be resolving. Haven't considered that target fully yet though.

jesterx

hey james buddy good to see ya.

Had a great day on euro...friday is looking interesting.

I think we can get a bit higher, just like last time but its gunna struggle though the recent highs.

jamesmarkii

uyoooooo

jamesmarkii

so 1105 to 1080 to 1096

springheel_jack

Thanks Kemal_1. :-)

I'm watching this low carefully. I'm expecting to see 1080 on the futs tonight or tomorrow morning.

I don't know whether it can all happen Friday either. I do know that Monday in opex is frequently very weak. I don't know whether we'll see much upside then.

Kemal_1

If the LD plays out, then Friday will look like a reversal day (low start, close high). So perhaps there will be some follow through early Monday.

springheel_jack

That's what I'm seeing for Friday too. Monday? Not a day I'll have any longs even as a hedge I suspect.

jesterx

some small hedges long dude....having a look at Euro and ES, looks like there is goign to be some sort of weighting to the upside for fridays trade, so im keep my long hedges just for now.

springheel_jack

I'm thinking we might see the low tomorrow morning & then bounce back for the day.

I'll hedge my remaining shorts then if it plays out that way.

jesterx

cool Kemal, you dont feel we will see 1100 level or higher next week ey?

Kemal_1

Most likely not.

TheMacroEconomist

Hey Kemal I agree, DXY is in the driver's seat right now. In fact for trading purposes I am disregarding counts on stock indexes attm and instead running with the counts on the DX and 6E as controlling. (I'm continuing to use value analytics for support and resistance and pivots on the index futures.)

Technically the EUR/USD action looks significant. Fundamentally I wonder how much of this bounce was reaction to lip service at APEC in Singapore last night. Speaking of lip service, some words from the CEO and CFO of SPY with critique. My VID OF THE DAY!!!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=132825979...

Oh yes the October Treasury budget deficit came in at $176.4 Billion, exceeding consensus of $165.0B and even the CBO's estimate of $175.0B. See why I'm fundamentally cynical? :-)

Kemal_1

Thanks.

ibc

Are you saying we are not going to see 1100s anymore? How far do you think we are going to the downside? I feel we are probably going down max to 1060 and then run back up to 1120 or something.

Kemal_1

If the LD plays out, 1100 will be history for a few years.

1060 is a reasonable target area. But no run back to 1120. Maybe 1080.

ibc

Thanks Kemal_1. Appreciate your input.

I thought the Turkey Gods will make people happy this season so they spend and spend until they drop dead.

Richard

Nice, Kemal. Direct and to-the-point. Very much appreciated.

annamall

Hey Kemal we missed you today congrats on your call, you are sometimes to good to be true and glad to have you here :))

we look forward to your charts :)

Duuuuuude

You may have heard of him but may not know him. The Option Addict is open for business!

annamall

Duuuuuuuuuude I don't mind other folks links but if they just want to come here to drop and link and that's all, please either add some content or don't just do that thank you

PRAMOD

Some oversold stocks due for a bounce-

1. APOL- I think it will see 60. Planning to buy Dec ITM calls.

2. FSLR- Close to Sep lows. Target entry 112 using Dec ITM calls. Exit at 125-128... Solar companies are due to report next week. Zstock believes it will go to 109 and he is pretty good with his calls and I respect him a lot.

3. SD- Target entry 9.0-9.50. Use Dec ITM calls with exit target at 10.00

4. UNG: forming a double bottom.... likes to fill its gaps... should fill its gap at 10.89-11.29...use Dec or Jan ITM calls

Appreciate others input :-)

ibc

Trying to pick bottom in UNG has given me only stinky fingers. Not sure I am going to touch that son of a gun. SD si already up AH on dropped acquisition.

bullethead

Yep - the potential for UNG to head lower certainly exists as it is starting to look like a milder winter than anticipated & high current inventory levels, plus co's are really good at extracting it these days. Even for a long term play, I would wait.

PRAMOD

Hi Anna,

Did you buy Dec calls on APOL? I know you mentioned it in one of your posts but i dont see it in the trades list. It is very oversold (Daily RSI at 18.6) and might be a safe long bet.

Any news on JCP? It is up 2% AH. I managed to get into the Nov 30/32.50 call spread at 0.6 just before the close. Another lotto play for me :-)

Romaitas

hey Pra,

Interesting article in regards to APOL:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/172697-consider...

Guest

Thanks Roma :-)

annamall

Hi Pra
Had to take a break and also feed the crew :)
no i didn't I wasn't thrilled with the chart, so never put it on.

JCP up 2% cool no I hadn't heard anything :)

TheMacroEconomist

Hey Anna, hey Pra, I'm in on JCP but I had modified it to a Nov. 29/31 bull put spread for 1.2 credit. I wanted to tighten up the P/L curve a bit since I don't plan to hold this one to expiration.

The JCP pop at 4:30 came in repsonse to KSS. Now KSS didn't pop much AH, but KSS had closed flat on the day while JCP was down 1.6%. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/kohls-profit-r...

With JCP "Every Day Matters" so we'll see tomorrow AM, good luck! :)

Guest

Thanks Macro... Did KSS raise guidance AH?

losershot

What I think: Corporations, who built up cash reserves through many actions because of March will slowly start buybacks, mergers, and acquisitions; reducing equity supply. This will push stocks up. The central banks are scheduled to reduce quantitative easing. They won't follow those plans. They know if they do, there'll be another drop in the economy (and stocks).

losershot

and so, this is my position

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/10/14/artic...

ibc

Anna said yesterday "Do what feels the worst". How true. very insighful. This pretty much sums up how you should trade.

TomOfTheNorth

losing money feels worst.....and not a good trading strategy!

;->

annamall

Hi Ibc, it's the truth :)

Earl of

I sold my TNA today as it was falling and bought it back near the close, so I still have it. Am a lot leery of that large red candle today, and very close to switching to TZA.

As for the notion that this site needs to be different to better match what someone thinks it ought to be, I say HOGWASH!

This place is amazing.

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