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Jack  has offered to help out since I must do an important errand this morning and thank you to him. I will be gone around  10:30 to 12:00.

My take is we are going to 1108, and then could either go down for a breather or melt higher. Low volume Holiday gang so tread carefully.  In the meantime the bears should remain patient till further notice :) My take is we melt higher patient_bear.jpg

Jack here, I’ve been having a close look at the index charts this morning as it seems that we might make an important top today. I’ll start adding shorts significantly at SPX 1105 & Dow 10350. I’m looking to the Dow for an entry point as it is in the best technical shape, but I’ll be shorting SPX and Nasdaq as they are already breaking down and lagging the Dow markedly. The Dow, as I mentioned, is in good technical shape, and is still cleanly within the major trend lines: 091111P Dow Trendlines

SPX has started to break down on the last downswing, but has still managed to climb back above the key lower trendlines. It seems unlikely to make it back to the top of the expanded wedge on this upswing though: 091111P SPX Trendlines

The Russell 2000 index is leading the breakdown, followed by $TRAN & Nasdaq. $RUT has broken both key lower trendlines, and looks likely to retest, and fail, at the lower of those trendlines, which is the expanded wedge trendline. 091111P RUT Trendlines

We will be making a swing high today or at some point in the next week. If Dow & USD break out of their expanding wedges on the next equities selloff, that will most likely signal that a very key top has been made.

Update on GLD chart looks like short term puts would be good

anna gold chart


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  • Sorry for those who just posted, I hate when it happens to me :)

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  • neonostra
    I didnt close CTRP spread :( Is there a possibility that it will come down after conference call
  • TheMacroEconomist
    Anything's possible if they say something that some analyst doesn't like.

    It is a toll free number, hehe!
  • neonostra
    HPQ bought 3com to compete with Cisco in networking. 3Com has presence in china.
  • ibc
    Glad to see GMCR backing off of it's 50 day MA at 69.15
  • ibc
    Not against any technician or chartists here, but being able to identify trends and consumer behavior will punch the teeth out of any technician, any day, any time. Carry on Elliotticians
  • jesterx
    spoken like a true non chartist,

    I hate when people say charts and TA dont work...that means I been living a lie and making fake money for the last 10 years....ummmmm RIIIGGGHHHTT!
  • Brian_mk
    you can always send a little of that fake money this way lol.

    Nice to see ya today Jester.
  • jesterx
    you too brian, the bears seem a bit disapointed today, but i feel it went pretty well.
  • loaf_of_bread
    They just mention palm on fast money , jon najarin is long the stock and looking for higher prices, this just sent the bid up 18 cents. I can see this stock at 15 or 16 by dec opex. Unles the S&P gets hard hit to under 1050 .
  • loaf_of_bread
    My view on palm is this is a stock that is tightly controled by insiders and can be run around like a hungry dog , the insiders just got paid in this plunge from 18 so there is no huge downside pressure, and there is no resistence to 15 for any late comers to this smart phone space that is a pure gamble and highly volital, there is only a slopy chart that gives you no edge , nor do I have clue if the stock would go down if the S&P were to go down, I would do every thing you can to less your risk if you are long puts. I really have no idea about using options to make up for a bad long puts position, ask someone smarter than me. I do not think palm will correct any farther than if it fall 33 pennies thursday. I do not see any triangle any where.
  • New pics on homeless and rescue page for you Annamall lover's :)
  • CTRP up 9% :-(
  • whoops sorry babe!
  • romeobravo
    CTRP out. Wow, look at it fly. Luckily we got out of our shorts, we dodged the bullet!
  • yea I had a feeling Romeo that it was for the best :)
  • romeobravo
    As Winston Churchill said, "Nothing in life is so exhilarating as to be shot at without result."
  • Glad I did Dec put spread... will lose 30-40% though!
  • I am sorry sweetie, but it might come down here so hoping it does, that's why I decide to close the thing up.
    But GMCR has to get above 70 tomorrow or else :)
  • TheMacroEconomist
    I think GMCR is definitely in play tomorrow (especially with the IVs of 110 today on the front month options, lots of uncertainty built in there).

    This time they reported 0.34 vs. 0.33. Last quarter they reported 0.36 on 0.33 and look at that candle the day after: 60.54 to 72.00 range.

    http://trixychart.com/trixysnap/1423659524.png
  • And CTRP goes into my short list for next earnings season along with PCLN, MA, AMZN, ISRG.... Please welcome CTRP with a huge round of applause...... heheeeeee :-0
  • This is the reason I hate to place a complete one sided bet :-)
  • TheMacroEconomist
    There we go. CTRP Bid 69.50, Ask 70.00.

    Conf call 8PM when AH trade ends, details at http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ctrip-r...
  • Richard CRM looks like it is forming an inverted H&S on the 6 month chart, and the lower indicators are bullish not bearish.
  • Hi Anna,

    Here are next week's potential earning plays-

    CRM, SHLD, BKE, STP, NTES, PLCE, CMED, GME, GYMB, CNQR, CSIQ

    ADSK: Not much short interest . However, the chart looks bearish. Overbought and bearish rising wedge?

    http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=adsk&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
  • bboplive
    Hey y'all. Anybody short around these parts? Bought some DEC SPY puts at HOD. Hopefully they stay green for a few days...
  • springheel_jack
    I'm 50% short from 1100.

    We may go higher. If so, I'll add more.
  • Hi BB we are a mixed bag in here like a fine salad :) wish you the best :)
  • Earl of
    Held all my TNA today, added some near the LOD and sold the add at the close for a 65 cent gain. As long as it keeps climbing, I'm staying with it.

    I enjoy reading about the options trades -- I'm not ready for it yet, but it's starting to look pretty interesting.
  • Richard
    Anna, new earnings idea for you: CRM. Was thinking Dec +60p/-55p spread.

    Let me know what you think when you have a chance.
  • will take a look richard :)
  • anyone have any info on CTRP??
  • AS2009
    I don't think its out yet ...
  • loaf_of_bread
    Dear As2009 please see my wensday post on youe palm options.
  • AS2009
    Jsut saw that ... horrible for my options ...
  • I am holding Dec 60/50 put spread at 2.30. Just puts and another lotto play. Looking at GMCR, I think I made a right choice by closing my DEC put spread and calls. It had to move more than 12% for me to make any profit and it was not worth it :-)
  • did CTRP come out yet?
  • Not yet. I think they will release it at 5:30-6 PM like BIDU because the CC is scheduled at 8PM EST according to google finance :-)
  • AS2009
    CTRP - up 10% to 72 !!!
  • CTRP makes it to my list of shorts for next earnings season.... Please welcome CTRP with a huge round of applause....heheeee

    CTRP, GS, V/MA, GOOG, AMZN, BIDU, NFLX,, BBBY, ISRG, PCLN, HMIN, GPN, VPRT, FSYS
  • I Know Anjali.....It was a lotto play for me. I used some of the profits from PCLN trade. I went with Dec 60/50 put spread.... I will lose 40-50%....Glad I bailed out on GMCR as I needed >12% move to make any profit :-)
  • Looks like the 70/75/80 Butterfly will work out just great :)
  • ibc
    I am hoping and praying for a collapse in GMCR tomorrow so I can get in some Calls. Please!!
  • no shhhhh lol I think the lows have been seen AH this is one great company :)
  • losershot
    if you guys like coffee, buy from here, very good beans.
    http://www.intelligentsiacoffee.com/
  • emmmmmmmmmmmm looks fab!
  • losershot
    it'll be even better when you brew it with this;

    http://www.chemexcoffeemaker.com/Coffeemakers.htm
  • I love it so simple and I might just order one! :)
  • wow guys look @ GMCR almost at 70 wooo hooo :)
  • ibc
    And Sold or 60 bucks profits. lester, transfer complete. :)
  • sweet for 5 minutes that 3000$ for an hour :)
  • ibc
    Thanks Anna. That is why I love AH
  • if we can get GMCR to 70 whoa perfect :)
  • AudioTactics
    Anna are you still holding your puts on GLD?
  • yes Audio I am :) (bit of ouch)
  • AudioTactics
    Yeah, I got hurt today too...

    To be honest, I have to say I'm not so confident in my position any more. It looks like momentum is still up and Gold rallied hard in the face of a USD rally. I think that is very telling...

    I'm just curious what you saw on your chart that led to the decision to go short? I would just like to hear your thought process.

    My guess is that because of the nosebleed levels, we might be ok on this but I'm just not sure Gold is going to rollover from here.
  • ibc
    I will be buying GMCR straight up calls tomorrow for a run into Xmas. GMCR is the AAPL of the coffee world.
  • i am trying to get filled on long stock on this dip right now :))
  • Richard
    Are you able to buy AH via TOS? If not, where?
  • Trying to on TOS but the darn stock is flying around so fast...
  • Richard
    you going for a full lot (100) or ?
  • yea a lot :)
  • ibc
    me too, Anna. got 15 shares so far at 65.50 LOL
  • oh wow excellent Ibc :)))
  • I almost got it @ 65 and change darn it by .05 miss
  • We shall see how GMCR opens up, but if you held the BF we will leg out tomorrow, we wanted the stock to come in or else we would have lost all the $ on the 75's (short leg)
    we want the stock to be at or close to 75 by next Friday. :)
  • Richard
    BF?
  • Butterfly :)
  • Richard
    Duh, got it,thanks.
  • we might leg out or go to OPX :)
  • springheel_jack
    I'm about 50% short with an average entry at 1100 SPX.
  • dollar
    Nice long RSI divergence on the SPX:

    http://screencast.com/t/MGQ5MDdlZGYt
  • ibc
    these divergences have been proven useless so many times now
  • thanks Dollar :)
  • dollar
    just my 2 cents :-)
  • your 2 cents is worth wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy more than 2 cents :)
  • 3 posts since last night with lots of charts and updated counts, if you're interested
    alphahorn.blogspot.com
  • springheel_jack
    Thanks alpha.
  • thanks Alpha :)
  • jjblacksheep
    HPQ and COMS halted
  • lester
    some asswipe just took .05 per contract out of my SPY Dec Puts in the last 10 mins before close. SPY moved by less than 0.1 during that 10 mins. Jeez
  • TheMacroEconomist
    The market maker took an advance on tonight's theta burn. Seriously.

    It's especially easy to do when the trade is flattish into the close.
  • Wampon
    Is it just me or this website is much busier than slope, es and xtrends? Everyone here are the only ones making money maybe that's why...
  • We don't discriminate here we are open to bullish and bearish scenarios :)
  • Richard
    ES==lots of complaining about bulltards
    SOH==lots of complaining about GS
    XT==incredible claims of trading successes

    Nothing wrong with any of that, but the complaining and claims don't show us how to trade or put $ in our pockets.

    HOB==lots of info for learning to be a better options trader in whatever direction the market goes.

    My 2 cents.
  • Guest
    and HOB = lots of q's "Anna, what do I do now ? sell, hold, wait...ooh..sell again..gee...buy back"...//..would be nice to have a plan or at least think of one, PLAN the TRADE and TRADE the PLAN...
  • Guest
    that was my 1 cent :)
  • My reply early was my 3 cents... so now we have a total of 6 cents. Maybe we can raise enough money to buy Lester some beer. (Just ribbing you Lester... we all love ya here).
  • Guest
    LOL @beer. Still..one should ask him/her self.."what if one day Anna & Kemal & Fujisan & Pramod will be gone ? Then WHAT ? Ohh yeah, I know..let's start by papertrading first, learn about support resistance and all the basics...watch and learn...(there u go, another cent) - 7 total :)
  • heheheh :)
  • your 2 cents is worth a million times more :)
  • That's because everyone is here to make money, not be a bull or bear.
  • Lurker
    ego always gets in the way of dudes...
  • How true that is...

    I'm a bear on the economy, but I'll trade whatever makes me money.
  • romeobravo
    GMCR getting whipped. Ouch!
  • I never panic when I see initial earnings, knee jerks sometimes wrong.
    but the butter fly might do just fine, it was up too much for the BF, but needs to come back a bit here
  • AS2009
    Anyone have thoughts on PALM ... Dec 11 puts bought at 1.43 - now worth 90 .... I see a triangle on this - which would go upto 12.5 ... or come down to 11.40 depeding which side it broek ...

    On the daily there is resistance at 12.17 which is the 200 MA first hit as resistance ...

    Thoughts ??
  • ibc
    I think you still have plenty of time AS. but do not add to this position. I would stay away from shorts for a while. I am still in buy the dip camp.
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