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Jack  has offered to help out since I must do an important errand this morning and thank you to him. I will be gone around  10:30 to 12:00.

My take is we are going to 1108, and then could either go down for a breather or melt higher. Low volume Holiday gang so tread carefully.  In the meantime the bears should remain patient till further notice :) My take is we melt higher patient_bear.jpg

Jack here, I’ve been having a close look at the index charts this morning as it seems that we might make an important top today. I’ll start adding shorts significantly at SPX 1105 & Dow 10350. I’m looking to the Dow for an entry point as it is in the best technical shape, but I’ll be shorting SPX and Nasdaq as they are already breaking down and lagging the Dow markedly. The Dow, as I mentioned, is in good technical shape, and is still cleanly within the major trend lines: 091111P Dow Trendlines

SPX has started to break down on the last downswing, but has still managed to climb back above the key lower trendlines. It seems unlikely to make it back to the top of the expanded wedge on this upswing though: 091111P SPX Trendlines

The Russell 2000 index is leading the breakdown, followed by $TRAN & Nasdaq. $RUT has broken both key lower trendlines, and looks likely to retest, and fail, at the lower of those trendlines, which is the expanded wedge trendline. 091111P RUT Trendlines

We will be making a swing high today or at some point in the next week. If Dow & USD break out of their expanding wedges on the next equities selloff, that will most likely signal that a very key top has been made.

Update on GLD chart looks like short term puts would be good

anna gold chart

793 Responses to “Wednesday Wacky Road map”

  1. annamall

    will take a look richard :)

  2. Earl of

    Held all my TNA today, added some near the LOD and sold the add at the close for a 65 cent gain. As long as it keeps climbing, I'm staying with it.

    I enjoy reading about the options trades — I'm not ready for it yet, but it's starting to look pretty interesting.

  3. bboplive

    Hey y'all. Anybody short around these parts? Bought some DEC SPY puts at HOD. Hopefully they stay green for a few days…

  4. PRAMOD

    Not yet. I think they will release it at 5:30-6 PM like BIDU because the CC is scheduled at 8PM EST according to google finance :-)

  5. AS2009

    I don't think its out yet …

  6. annamall

    Hi BB we are a mixed bag in here like a fine salad :) wish you the best :)

  7. annamall

    Richard CRM looks like it is forming an inverted H&S on the 6 month chart, and the lower indicators are bullish not bearish.

  8. AudioTactics

    Anna are you still holding your puts on GLD?

  9. PRAMOD

    Hi Anna,

    Here are next week's potential earning plays-

    CRM, SHLD, BKE, STP, NTES, PLCE, CMED, GME, GYMB, CNQR, CSIQ

    ADSK: Not much short interest . However, the chart looks bearish. Overbought and bearish rising wedge?

    http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=adsk&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

  10. TheMacroEconomist

    There we go. CTRP Bid 69.50, Ask 70.00.

  11. annamall

    yes Audio I am :) (bit of ouch)

  12. annamall

    New pics on homeless and rescue page for you Annamall lover's :)

  13. PRAMOD

    CTRP up 9% :-(

  14. annamall

    whoops sorry babe!

  15. PRAMOD

    Glad I did Dec put spread… will lose 50% though!

  16. annamall

    I am sorry sweetie, but it might come down here so hoping it does, that's why I decide to close the thing up.
    But GMCR has to get above 70 tomorrow or else :)

  17. romeobravo

    CTRP out. Wow, look at it fly. Luckily we got out of our shorts, we dodged the bullet!

  18. springheel_jack

    I'm 50% short from 1100.

    We may go higher. If so, I'll add more.

  19. springheel_jack

    Thanks alpha.

  20. annamall

    yea I had a feeling Romeo that it was for the best :)

  21. loaf_of_bread

    My view on palm is this is a stock that is tightly controled by insiders and can be run around like a hungry dog , the insiders just got paid in this plunge from 18 so there is no huge downside pressure, and there is no resistence to 15 for any late comers to this smart phone space that is a pure gamble and highly volital, there is only a slopy chart that gives you no edge , nor do I have clue if the stock would go down if the S&P were to go down, I would do every thing you can to less your risk if you are long puts. I really have no idea about using options to make up for a bad long puts position, ask someone smarter than me. I do not think palm will correct any farther than if it fall 33 pennies thursday. I do not see any triangle any where.

  22. AudioTactics

    Yeah, I got hurt today too…

    To be honest, I have to say I'm not so confident in my position any more. It looks like momentum is still up and Gold rallied hard in the face of a USD rally. I think that is very telling…

    I'm just curious what you saw on your chart that led to the decision to go short? I would just like to hear your thought process.

    My guess is that because of the nosebleed levels, we might be ok on this but I'm just not sure Gold is going to rollover from here.

  23. PRAMOD

    This is the reason I hate to do place a complete one sided bet :-)

  24. PRAMOD

    And CTRP goes into my short list for next earnings season along with PCLN, MA, AMZN, ISRG…. Please welcome CTRP with a huge round of applause…… heheeeeee :-0

  25. TheMacroEconomist

    I think GMCR is definitely in play tomorrow (especially with the IVs of 110 today on the front month options, lots of uncertainty built in there).

    This time they reported 0.34 vs. 0.33. Last quarter they reported 0.36 on 0.33 and look at that candle the day after: 60.54 to 72.00 range.

    http://trixychart.com/trixysnap/1423659524.png

  26. loaf_of_bread

    They just mention palm on fast money , jon najarin is long the stock and looking for higher prices, this just sent the bid up 18 cents. I can see this stock at 15 or 16 by dec opex. Unles the S&P gets hard hit to under 1050 .

  27. romeobravo

    As Winston Churchill said, “Nothing in life is so exhilarating as to be shot at without result.”

  28. ibc

    Not against any technician or chartists here, but being able to identify trends and consumer behavior will punch the teeth out of any technician, any day, any time. Carry on Elliotticians

  29. ibc

    Glad to see GMCR backing off of it's 50 day MA at 69.15

  30. neonostra

    HPQ bought 3com to compete with Cisco in networking. 3Com has presence in china.

  31. jesterx

    spoken like a true non chartist,

    I hate when people say charts and TA dont work…that means I been living a lie and making fake money for the last 10 years….ummmmm RIIIGGGHHHTT!

  32. neonostra

    I didnt close CTRP spread :( Is there a possibility that it will come down after conference call

  33. Brian_mk

    you can always send a little of that fake money this way lol.

    Nice to see ya today Jester.

  34. annamall


    *********** NEW POST**********
    <3<3<3<3<<3<3<3<3<<3<3<3<3<<3<3
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    <3<3<3<3<<3<3<3<3<<3<3<3<3<<3<3

  35. jesterx

    you too brian, the bears seem a bit disapointed today, but i feel it went pretty well.

  36. annamall

    Sorry for those who just posted, I hate when it happens to me :)

  37. annamall


    *********** NEW POST**********
    <3<3<3<3<<3<3<3<3<<3<3<3<3<<3<3
    ******************************
    <3<3<3<3<<3<3<3<3<<3<3<3<3<<3<3

  38. TheMacroEconomist

    Anything's possible if they say something that some analyst doesn't like.

    It is a toll free number, hehe!

  39. loaf_of_bread

    Dear As2009 please see my wensday post on youe palm options.

  40. AS2009

    Jsut saw that … horrible for my options …

  41. AS2009

    CTRP – up 10% to 72 !!!

  42. PRAMOD

    I Know Anjali…..It was a lotto play for me. I used some of the profits from PCLN trade. I went with Dec 60/50 put spread…. I will lose 40-50%….Glad I bailed out on GMCR as I needed >12% move to make any profit :-)

  43. PRAMOD

    CTRP makes it to my list of shorts for next earnings season…. Please welcome CTRP with a huge round of applause….

    CTRP, GS, V/MA, GOOG, AMZN, BIDU, NFLX,, BBBY, ISRG, PCLN, HMIN, GPN, VPRT, FSYS

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