am I seeing this right... $DXY is down to 74.88 ?

yes you sure are

Yes you're right. My country's bank actually intervened in the forex market yesterday to make sure our currency didn't appreciate too much against USD.

Yes, that's right.

if it keeps that level, you'll have your 1108 on SPX in the first hour or so of trading I bet.

M missed.

Are we looking at possible gap fill at the opening or do we just blast off new highs?

I have 2% on SPY Puts and it'll be nice if I can get rid of them with a small loss, or hopefully breakeven (:

Hi Anna,

If todays gap is not filled, it will be the third unfilled gap within a week. In the past, whenever such thing happened, at least one of them (gap) got filled in the short term.

Hi all, Anna, Ti Amo, what a great site you have. congrats. Wanted to ask you what you think of GS. Has lagged the market but may be due for catch up.

Welcome Bamster,
thanks so much, I really haven't been following GS except as a indicator for the tape.
I know it has allot of support around 165 and could hit 200 before all is said and done this year :)

PBR is looking nice and greasy today ;-P

Well call me thick or something (don't all rush) but isn't it a holiday in the US today? - or have I been misinformed???

My idea of a holiday is sitting in an armchair watching TV.

GM Ted, hahaha no it is, but the stock market is open so here we are :)

Can't stop the money flow boys.... and for a short while I thought the US had a new sense of decensy... As long as those boys are out there fighting for us let's make money..

yes A Salute to the men and women who risk their lives everyday Plus 1 million :)

From Joe:

Joe8888 Just now

Gann 50-50 Where Price & Time Meet: It should mean Something !

http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder...

Link doesn't work AS

Wow excellent Brian :) GM

morning, was just fixing the link for AS

That's Joe's chart btw. .. .I just rolled out of bed lol

Thanks :)

yes :)

GM Y'all SNP do you ever sleep?? Thank you for the charts

Good morning all! FPL got an upgrade as well....

GM SnP :)

FPL ? or FLR?

FPL....I am watching Utilities as a value play when all other sectors gets overbought

Excellent you are one smart eyeball!

Watch ConEd as well.

Sorry which sector or symbol is that...?

I think it's ED

It's a NYC utility

Sym: ED

Its already up....Same with D and SO but will keep an eye as well

Florida Power and Light? Do they still drive those ugly orange vehicles?

Credit Suisse downgraded Priceline.com to Neutral from Outperform. The firm cites "balanced risk/reward" for the downgrade. Target $185

Morning all!

PCLN down PM? Whatup with dat?

Hi Fly,

Yesterday I mentioned I will do a 200/220 call spread if PCLN goes to 200 and I think it has a pretty good chance of happening today. It may even go below 200 briefly just to entice some shorts :-)

What would the cost of the spread be in that scenario i.e. 200... also looking at Nov or Dec ?

Morning Fly .45 on a 203 stock is like 04.cent on a 25$ stock LOL
it might retest 200 before going higher don't worry :)

Just seems weird where pretty much all others Beta stocks are up PM...that's all

good morning Anna, my first question for the day (sorry I have so many). If GMCR gets to the mid strike of the BFLY which is 75....should we sell it?

GM Suzor :)


that's ok, it is too early to sell it right now, if it can stick around 75 by OPX that would be ideal, but if you see a good profit today, it up PM to 74.31 (wow)
take it and run :)

GM HOBsters

Well off we go to my 1108 that a few scoffed at (ahem) actually more than a few and you know who you are. Am I happy, personally I could care less as long as I am on with you guys the right side of the trade!

Please check out my UPS stock pick today :)))

Anna - one more q ... are you looking to buy puts if we open at 1108 for a move down ... or does that tell us that we are going up further ?

Anji, my feeling is that 1108 is just a stop to 1121 and yes we will see some dips, but the FED is lending $$$$$ at 0% interest and the banks are charging up the ying yang, they are not going to raise, people buy risky assets and this might go on for some time, at least till January and possibly a bit longer.
So carefully I tread. no puts except as a hedge girl

Not me! I was on the same page... 1120 and even 1200 before end of year :-)

Here are next week's potential earning plays-

CRM, SHLD, BKE, STP, NTES, PLCE, CMED, GME, GYMB, CNQR, CSIQ

ADSK: Not much short interest . However, the chart looks bearish. Overbought and bearish rising wedge?

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=adsk&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

I will try to look at each of them in detail in the next few days. Let me know your input.

TIA

I know you were, there was a few but they shall remain nameless, they know who they are hehehe ;)

SHLD GYMB NTES are some of my favs..yes we both will look and meet back here later (wink wink ) :)

Any long play today? what about AAPL to 208-209 or SPY long at 110 and exit at 111? I missed UPS :-(

Yea Apple broke out of resistance Pra, lets go find a good spread on it!

sorry you missed UPS, I bought DEC 60's at an average of .23 now trading @ .42

For you and your babies.......FLR got an upgrade today :-)

Let's see how the options move :)

Sweet!!!

;-)

yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!! I am long stock now too :)

They will open above 0.60 (200% return). You go girl!!!!.....heheeeeee...

Sweet!! thanks Pra, I might just say ta ta on 1/2 at least thats just about a 200% return :)

SPY calls if it opens below 110, PCLN and AAPL spread.... thats the game plan today....

what opens below 100? :)

I am sorry I meant SPY 110.... I need my morning caffeine

hahahah no prob! Looking @ an Apple BF for opx or a spread for dec :)

Hi Anna,

I just found the reason why PCLN is down. They got a downgrade by credit suisse with a target of 210!!!!

what downgrade 210 am I missing something ???

Yep the downgrade was on TOS Live news 2 hours ago..

Doesn't seem to be really affecting the stock so far though :)

Yep, look at this-

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calenda...

Still has room to go up to 210 though :) and the only reason they downgrade is so they can get in cheaper LOL

Bummer!

ahem is right :)

GM Toochez :)

Wow :) Glad I jumped in yesterday :) ...

BTW I jumped it as it broke the channel an closed outside it ... wasn;t random but pretty much near the top ...

Channel breakout tgt is 60.50 with resistance @ 58 and 59.30 on the way ...

I assume is a well known fact - 78% of all break outs fail, therefore a way nicer trade is to wait for the pullback after a break out (sweet spot, HPT, nice R/R ratio)

Toochez, HPT what strike you looking @ Dec 20?

HPT in that context = High Probability Trade :) not the stock per say..yeah great pick UPS, congrats again :)

Thanks Too, yes I looked at the call options but didn't like the spreads (too wide for this girl heheh)

this is too funny (eom)

Sweet, I am happy for you Anji ;) you deserve a winner Congrats. I wish you had the opportunity to jump in when it was under 54 like many of us, but better late winning than never right :)))

Yes - I do to ... I think the better way to play is the channel is play a bounce of support .... then if it breaks out the top, then hold, otherwise sell ... I guess that is what you guys did ...

I kept waiting for the break of the channel, however $$ could be made on the move up inside the channel too ....

Hi Anj,

Did you get my message about CTRP 65/60 put spread vs 60/55?

Hi Pra,

Need your suggestion, do you think it is still OK if I enter the CTRP today since its already up more than $10 before earning ?
Do you think CTRP will gap >10% ?
Are you still at 75% Nov 65/60 puts spread and 25% Nov 65/70 call spread ?
How you do that ? buy 3contracts at put and 1 contract at call spread ??

Thankyou Pra... sorry so many questions :)

Hi mvl,

Since my bias is bearish, it is actually a nice thing it is rallying into earnings. I have been harping on 67 level for the past two days, which will be a double top formation. If it rallies to 66-67 today, it will be overbought (RSI currently at 68) both on weekly and daily. The way I look at it is even if it beats, it is already priced in its stock price because it has rallied more than 20% in one week. The worse case scenario would be it might pop 3-5% and then drop. If you want to play safe, do 70-75% Dec 60/55 put spread (cost of 1.4 and max return of 5.0) and 20-25% Dec 70/75 call spread.

GL

Thanx for your input Pra, but i dont understand what you mean by 70-75% put spread and 20-25% call spread, is it refer to the amount of the contract you buy?

If I have 1K to play, I would use 70-75% of 1K, which is $700-750 in put spread and 25-30%, which is $ 250-300 in call spread.

:-)

o i c, ok Pra..once more thanx ! :)

my pleasure ;-)

Yes I saw that ... .thanks for explaining ... :) ... thinking about it .... honestly am scared of losing another 180 ....

would only laugh at how ugly u make other girls when u stand next to them DANG ;)

hahah GM hunky Aussie :)

What Jack, Anna, and others said. My 200 cents worth (deval on the USD). heh. A little bit of a rant.

Pre-Market warm up
Looks like SPX had a consolidation day yesterday, as opined. After that rest, the intrepid bulls will challenge BIG WHITE – which is the long term trend line from Oct 2007 high that also gets touched in May 2008, but SPX only comes close to it recently. (I really wish I could get Jing to work at work so I could post. Weekends have just been too hectic to get on Bloomberg at home. Sorry for the lack of chart).

Suffice to say that SPX is testing the long term trend line. I imagine that it will put a pin through. The upper Bollinger is above at 1112.28 and sometimes this acts as a magnet for any ramp. Above that is the 50% FIB (ultimate SPX high to 666 low) at 1121. If anyone reads these, you may recall that I did an analysis of the MBS money remaining for FED liquidity pumps, and used the Pareto 80/20 rule to estimate around 1122 /1123 as where all that money could take SPX. The program is legal until March 2010 – so don’t be surprised to see the bears get their faces ripped off a couple of more times before the 2nd coming (P3. heh.)

There are 4 TA levels where a possible turn could take place. The BIG WHITE trend line which is around 1102ish; The upper Bollinger at 1112ish; The 50% FIB At 1121ish; and, The channel top (channel we’ve been running in since the bottom, or since May 2009 for an alternative (this depends if May 2009 is seen as an overthrow or not). The channel top (depending on how the line is drawn) is around 1137 – 1145ish and rising.
How to play this? If we go above any of those points and close higher, you can go long and put your stop below that point. If we close above, and then close below, you can go short with a stop above that point. In other words, you cannot predict which way the market will go (sorry EW’ers) but you can pick select points where the loss is small if you are wrong with your BET.

Notice that all the points are above yesterday’s close. We all know that the market is being driven by liquidity and not by fundamentals. The NEWS is just an excuse that the MSM gives to try to explain what is happening in the market. Don’t take it personally. Ben and company are no more interested in your financial fate than a bulldozer driver is concerned about an anthill in his /her path. Ben and all the other CB’ers have decided that reflation is the only way to save civilization and they will encourage stimulation and liquidity injections of money stolen from the future of taxpayers until it works. This will only end if they run out of so-called money, or somehow the economy starts rolling again. Again, the bulldozer operator is just trying to create a big pile of dirt and it doesn’t matter how many bugs get crushed in the process. It will only stop when the bulldozer runs out of gas.

So, stop trying to pick THE TOP. Pick a TA level as a turnaround point but wait for confirmation. Why risk being wrong again and again simply to say that you got in at the very top for the ride down? The market ramp cannot end until the pumping stops. Ben has until March 2010. Plan accordingly.

Equity
Asia was green. Europe is green. The G20 pretty much said that the alcohol will flow freely forever. There is no reason, at the present time, to avoid risk assets. The DAX is green in every sector – most of them with 100% of the member companies in the green. It opened up, ramped some more and now is trending sideways – what one way yesterday called Ramp and Camp (I like that a lot!).

SPX volume continues to decline. Take that for what you will.

FX
The FED is now seen having an approach of “benign neglect” vis a vis the USD. See Fischer’s comments: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Fisher asserts that dollar is undergoing a “rather orderly depreciation.”
The USD is pounded through the EUR and CAD (JPY and GBP are weaker) as the DXY hits 74.90; GOLD is continuing its march up. The gloves are off and we just need the bond vigilantes to put in an appearance for the apocalypse to begin. Doubt that it will happen though.

EUR pivots (does it really matter at this stage – pick any direction so long as it is up and sell before 1.52 and you should make money). EUR had the same Ramp and Camp as DAX, and as SPX will.
R2: 1.5066 – There do seem to be sellers around 1.5050. China didn’t show as expected around 1.5020 – live by BoC, die by the BoC.
R1: 1.5029 – currently is the floor for the Camp.
Neutral: 1.4984 – acted as a floor overnight
S1: 1.4948 – This was the floor yesterday at 8 AM EST before the Ramp and Camp.
S2: 1.4902 – not even on the radar at the present time.

Data
Bloomberg Global Confidence was 60.30 down from 61.70
Nothing else until tomorrow when we will see Mortgage apps and initial jobless claims, the monthly budget statement, and the trade balance on Friday (the 13th for those who think the market is driven by patterns of stars from millions of years ago and numerology).

Pay attention to the trade balance. As the deficit shrinks, it is harder and harder for the China /USA circle jerk of pumping to continue. China has less USD to lend back to the US Treasury and the credit contraction continues – which in turn puts economic pressure on China to keep faking GDP growth and building all those “pyramids” that add nothing to productive GDP (kind of like the stimulus infrastructure programs in the US).

The FED will have to step out from behind the curtain, and show its hand on the privates of the international financial community, and this will draw the anger of Americans who WILL COME TO REALIZE MORE AND MORE that they have been made into debt slaves for the benefit of other countries.

Remember to pause for 2 minutes at the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month to remember those who were physically sacrificed on another altar in the name of freedom.

Cheers.

Thorough and concise as always-thank you sir.

Thanks Anna, Squidman, CorporalCarrot, and others for your kind words.

Cheers.




________________________________

As much as I abhor splitting hairs and mining data for your own book, there are enormous divergences abound with this attempt at new highs in the S&P. From sector divergences to breath divergences - the market looks to be running on vapors here. Should be an interesting session with a very good chance that the market reverses after the open.

Morning Faz, glad to see you post some good stuff! I couldn't agree more there is bearish dirvergence everywhere so a new wave is due soon, however i have 2 spots 1108 and 1121 RL. G/L today

Morning Anna and all, I see some of Worden's intermediate term indicators are weakening. I'll take it (better than nothing). My own market indicator is still green but a red close today might be enough to push it over. Expecting some low volume hijinks today. Good luck everyone.

Morning JJ :))

yea, expect the unexpected today, low volume with the holiday. thanks for your input :)

Cool name... instead of Baa Baa Black Sheep, you're Jay Jay Black Sheep! LOL! I thought that was Jay Jay Walker from Good Times... Mr. Dynomite!

On that show, I'd be more like Ned the Wino I think haha.

Sucker's rally coming everyone. Don't buy into! The news out on Thursday and Friday will bring some volume back into this market. Big institutions aren't buying into this rally, but instead are selling into it. Every day the volume is under 200 million shares traded on the spy the market has rallied.

Every day the volume is over 200 million shares traded the market tanked. I've pointed this out many times on various posts on my blog. Yesterday's volume was about 170 million, and Monday was only 150 million. Today will be just as light... which means that the PPT (Goldman... whoever?) will rally this up one more time to sucker in every last retail bull, and squeeze out every last bear.

I'm looking for volume to exceed 200 million on Thursday and Friday... which means a down day, as institutions will be selling into whatever high we reach today. Distribution (selling) has been on the rise since August, while accumulation (buying) has been on the decline.

You can drop by Cobra's blog from time to time as he posts a chart showing it on occasion. The latest chart is here...

http://lh4.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/Svl0iUfBAwI/A...

As you can see in the chart they have be slowly selling. Look at the blue lines showing buying. From August I see 2 peaks and one more about to happen right now. The red (selling) is also showing a steady rising trend. When you have both lines going in opposite directions a trend is happening.

A truly healthy market should have big volume on UP days and low volume on DOWN days. We currently don't have that. It's just the opposite, and it has been like that for many months now. Look on any chart that shows volume, and you'll see big tall red bars and short black bars.

Rarely does the up days have large volume. This tells me that any day that has a lot of news in it, which will cause the market to have larger volume, should be a down day. Well... that's Thursday and Friday folks.

Red

Red Dragon Leo .... are you related to ITMS ?

No, but I'm a subscriber.

OK me too ... That's why your language was so familiar :)