So what did I miss? Still have those SPY puts. Perhaps I'll have a good chance to drop them on Monday.

Thanks to everyone here this week. Especially, thank you to Anna and Fujisan for making trading fun and even profitable. Have a great weekend!

Welcome and had a fun week shades glad you're here :)

To those who are shorting AMZN-

Daneric posted this on Oct 26th. His target on AMZN was 130-

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SuZXSV9PG...

I am back! Took a nap between 2-5 PM. Went to 100% cash this morning after I sold my Dec puts that I had bought yesterday and early today (at 1070) for 4% profit. I told Anna this morning that I have a funny feeling we might close in green today. Just woke up to see my gut feeling turned out be true :-)

This is what I wrote this morning-

"Different ellioticians and blogs have different counts, some bullish with 1100 target while others see us going to 1020 from 1070-1075 level. So we are trading in the middle of 1020-1100 range. My philosophy is WHEN IN DOUBT, STAY OUT! Hence I exited my puts for 4% gain. May reload the Dec puts if we hit 1070 again as it will form a double top. Remember, sometimes the best trade is NOT to trade :-)"

Have a great weekend everyone.

Have a good weekend all.

You too Lester :)

The spx triangle shows a upward swing range of 1083. The exact point of gap closure.

Same page Night nice to see you ;)

Thanks to all for the phenomenal help and stuff.

ciao!

well as first thought the day was up but not much....those machined stops were taken out one by one but there wasnt enough bull snorting today.

those VIX way overshot themselves so we gotta remember they are coming back to some sort of equilibrium cant expect them to shoot up....i would like a more nice steady upwards...... and nice steady drop on ES / equities.

Jes, where you been all day mate?

family dramas, but I will probably be back on board next week.

An up move on friday as some of those buy stop covers were triggered...but this damn thing continues to run on fumes.

I've been using EW since the '80's, and the move up from Tuesday is quite murky in EW terms. Sure is choppy, looks more like a correction than a sustainable move. However, Kemal and Springheel could well be right, could be more to come. As a famous trader once said, the best indicator is price, and prices continue to move up.
Still long ES and holding.

Hey Anna,
As always, thank you for your time spent with us all, the great trades you post, and help you give. Take Care of all those cute little critters, and enjoy the weekend! :))

Hey Patti!
Youre such a pleasure. I am happy to help and wish we had a more exciting day. I was actually just up a tad (not much)
A bit better in FX than equities but nothing to write home about :)))
Enjoy yours too and see you on the other side :)

Closed above high volume cluster zoon, so it's a bullish close. ES wise, it sits in light cumulative volume spot between 1064/5 & 1075/6, and highest concentrated upside area (for this round) lies at about 1075 (1078 SPX).

Now a local IHS and a potential big HS could come to play. So next week should be interesting...

Yes I'm waiting to see what the 5-day and 10-day overlays look like (my market profile service is crunching all the latest tick data now). Probably a bunch of quasi volume distibutions below 1064 potentially making things even more interesting next week. ;)

I am still holding NOV $23.00 UUP puts (paid .35). Will I be looking at a bad IV crush regardless of rally/dollar drop?

Delta -0.551
Gamma 0.472
Rho -0.005
Theta -0.009
Vega 0.018
Implied Vol 18.12

H&S, inverted H&S, whatever it takes.... interesting inverted H&S chart posted by Kemal earlier.
Odd that the daily chart seems to be setting up for a potential regular H&S near the 1075 to 1080 area for a right shoulder....
which one proves correct? His inverted H&S on the shorter time frame chart implies a move to 1100 area it looks like....
seems like a lot of potential for a fake out near 1075 area, likely to break hard one way or the other at that level.... which way???

Pleasure trading with you all this week. Have a wonderful weekend.

You too Beef, check in over the weekend :)

Will do.

Thanks Anna, and the rest of the crew - will be looking forward to the weekend post. And of course to the famous weekend post from Fujisan. But first get some well deserved rest and relaxation will you :-)

WOW...MA! It was at 209 the other day?

I know I am so ticked at myself for not following the game plan, my bad. my thoughts were right on it

closed remaining Nov 106 for a small profit

closed all my SPY Nov too .... .05 per contract gain..

Looking for a good trade on APOL for Monday remind me :)

Will try to do that to see whether I can follow you on this as my first try...

ok AJR, I like to trade APOL I usually do well with that one.. :)

I am working on a few topics this weekend along with some pictures for the homeless animals page.

Along with some trades on earnings that Richard put up.

Bullish vix today barring any last minute excitement, back within broken trendline & next serious support at 19:

http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...

Fly you still have Monday to get filled on PCLN ;)

K..and it looks like we'll have to wait till then. Thanks.

DOW 10 min ADX is on 10... Which is a reset. Big Move very likly outcome.
If it's a big move up New highs on DOW.. Any bets?
http://www.screencast.com/users/Plug21/folders/...
Been defying Gravity all day.

Hi Ted, wouldn't surprise me at all 1108 next week ?

Fly you still have Monday to get filled on PCLN ;)

Notice how the VIX is down 4.5% today while the SPX is only up 0.15%. Seems like the CBOE MMs were largely successful in handing the weekend theta burn off onto the retail traders. Easy to do that on a "slow" afternoon.

The intraday VIX chart, with the slow downward trend starting at 10:45, is very telling. Not quite the inverted SPX that it should've been. ;)

I have some VIX Jan 32.5 Calls that I paid 1.95 for. They are sucking. 10% plosition (down from 15%)

Lester I traded the VIX options once, they suck the IV back and forth usually against you.
The spreads are terrible to boot. I would pass on this one in the future :)

I am looking at these as an insurance policy in case there are som big
down days later this month or in Dec. I will have to cut them lose
sometime before XMas though ...

Yes those VIX options are strange animals. They are based on VIX futures so they track the forward VIX, not the actual VIX.

Interestingly: VIX futures happen to be in contango right now, just like oil futures. VIX futs traders think that there will be more volatility in December and further out months than there will be in November.

(BTW that's why VXX, the front-month VIX futures ETN, should be avoided attm.)

UNP,GR, getting close to short sell--I'll do the charts this weekend

excellent rubbing hands together hehehe ;)

Pra/others,
You interested in sharing ideas over the weekend on other earnings plays from next week for spread plays?

I've looked at the earnings plays for next week and culled that list down based on volume and reviewed the spreads for each to assure they are somewhat reasonable. From here, my thoughts are we review the chart and the historical earnings reaction for each and see if we can pick the appropriate direction and strikes. Sound fun?

For starters, here a list of suspects:
erts
flr
mr
pcln
tyc
fmcn
aap
amat
ctrp
gmcr
ntes
tbsi
kss
urbn
wmt
jwn
anf
a
tk
yge
ener
jcp

Anna, hope you don't mind me cluttering up the blog.

Hell no :) that's what we want to do here is find great Low R to H R trades babe :)

anna, are you watching rimm?

Just saw it loser, looks like a big bounce

i didn't get to sell that last put, hmmmm

I posted I was out this morning :(

i saw, decided to let one ride. it's dec one.

i saw, decided to let one ride.

ok :)

bah, I had a chance to get out with no loss. took it.

Well sometimes that is the best thing to do i thought it might bounce this a.m so that is why I bailed :)

GS forgot to reboot their computers

anna,
will you post a P.O. Box where one can send some cash...

will send to you by email :)

Got it, thanks.

I emailed you Lester, don't use the one I posted, took it off anyway.

No fill yet on PCLN? I'm sitting here scratching my head.

hmmmm ?

LONG APOL, 55.8, looking for 58 then 63 exit, LONG COCO too!

great thanks Zstock :)

Then any idea to make it a option spread candidate? Thanks!

I will put it on my watch list for weekend ARJ :)

added a few Nov Calls

anna, do you still have SPY Nov Calls? I have mine, but nervous, I thought we were gonna ramp, that is why I closed some of my Puts

I sold and rebought on dip, the bulls are not going to let that 10,000 mark go today IMHO Lester

did you see that news I mentioned Anna? :)

oh thank you Brian for remembering the animals :))))))

:)

no I was just watching clips of Denny Crane LOL so funny :)

You really need to save your buying power until we reach an inflection point Lester. We are in the middle of nowhere here. The risk/reward isn't great either way.

I will close all my Nov today, hope to make some green and increase my BP for next week

Good idea Lester. We should reach a key inflection point within a few days and we can really make some serious $ when we do. :-)

closed my PCLN Dec Call for $40 gain. Just cannot risk an earnings fart and loss of $400 or more. That one yr chart is straight up.

Also closed some of my Dec Puts on this dip. 20% short still.

ok good for you Lester, drinks on you tonight :)

Ooookay, I'll go and do some fireworks for the children. I suspect I won't miss much. This tape looks stuck. :-)

Hi Anna, about getting out/rolling over NOV options... I still have the MA 240(long)/250(short) call spread, does that also apply to spreads? I guess not or in a much lesser degree. I think MA wil run up towards 240 next week so I want to hold on to them till then (and maybe buy back to short leg on a dip before that happens).

No spreads you want the time decay to work in your benefit on the short leg the 240
The 230 is in the $ so it will still work that's the best sceniaro, you must be doing good on that trade. I should have be more patient. :)

Thanks Anna, it's coming around and starting to look like a green shoot :-)
BTW I have 240/250 so still a bit OTM

ok but is starting to work well soon ;)

Looks like the USD/JPY might just roll over here

Take a look at the VIX.

We`re at 61.8% reatrace from the last high, and right at the zone of the prior (iv) wave. I`ll post a chart after the close.

Troll on cnbs..

The charts are difficult to read right now, if one tries to dissect EW patterns. The EUR/USD chart appears to form a bull flag pointing to 1.51 as the target:

http://tinyurl.com/yjn3k6c

The SPX is in a VERY tricky situation. I am watching two potential set ups.

1. The inverted H&S formation could form much smaller left and right shoulders than what one would think on first glance.

2. A so called leading diagonal (LD) could be forming in the wave (a) position. Right now, the fourth wave would be forming. I give this formation quite some credibility. The final fifth wave should be an acceleration to the 1074 - 1076 area. It could happen end of day OR first thing Monday morning. IF such an acceleration (or gap up on Monday morning) happens, GET OUT as fast as you can.
The reason is that an LD is followed by a very sharp retracement, likely down to 1050. This retracement could last 2 - 3 days.

I don't expect any drop today. Even after the sharp retracement, if it happens, new highs are certain. So the major market direction is up.

(I don't have much time today)

funny, there also seems to be a potential regular H&S forming on the S&P....

off topic
GOLD ( the stock) reports next Tuesday--that'll tank--I'd short now! $80 is the highest it can possibly get to--even if it beats st by 20%

nice rec z

Good call! Expanding triangle at the top.

Kemal, would you short GDX if it hits 49? I remember you said it won't go beyond that point...Appreciate your comment.

Yes, one can short between 49 and 50.

Thanks kemal_1.

Hi Kemal, missed you today, been asking for you...thank you so much :)

excellent guide :)

SPX chart here:

http://tinyurl.com/yau9z97

Thanks a lot Kemal ... and you would suggest getting out of BAC as well on the option 2 ?

If the s&p does not reverse hard monday I think you are ok for a 70 cent up move on monday . Good luck don't be afraid to sell for a small loss. Are you in the green a little? Remmember 8 small loses and 2 big gains and you are still in the big game.