buried far below the grousing CNBC headlines we find what the world really thinks of the USA:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/33707678

Please repost on new thread Humble Pie :)))

GM Anna,

I am on call tonight :-(

Poor baby! Congrats on HANS last night sweetie ;))

Thanks. Time to go back to bed. Had to wake up at 3 AM to do an emergency which we just finished :-)

Hi Anna, great to see that HOB has been doing well while I've been on vacation! :)

In fact I was actively trading while away (because I'm nutty!) but only oil, with equity positions held as is. Spot-on support/resistance technicals and relatively straightforward dollar action made oil easy to trade around the weekly inventory reports. I avoided anything new with equity indexes given their continued sloppy wide range-bound trade: Hit the bathroom at the wrong time, a seemingly good trendline does a sudden Houdini vanishing act and whamo, you miss a 10-point move in the S&P.

Anyway! Today the S&P futures rallied right up to 1064 resistance and stopped, Russell 2000 jumped >3% to its 580 resistance area. Maybe it's the start of cleaner technicals. What struck me was the low volume buying as if sellers took the day off. This alone would argue Friday for yet another reversal, of Thursday's reversal of Wednesday afternoon's reversal. (Doesn't that sound silly!) On that basis I went net 15% short at the close. BUT...

Friday's BLS report is likely to have sticking power, as it's the last economic report out until Thursday the 12th. Consensus for Nonfarm Payrolls is 175,000. If it's that or less I'll be closing shorts in anticipation of a retest of mid-October's market highs. BLS seldom disappoints. But if Nonfarm Payrolls come in well over 200,000 like last month, the market will be back in the trading range for sure. Wednesday afternoon's lows probably hold then but if not, there's a gap at 1009.75 in the futures trade to fill...

Hi Mac, that's an understatement as you can see I am up at 4:30am putting up the new post LOL
sorry to do this but could you repost, I just added Jack's new post and I don't want your post to get lost in here :))))

my direct feed sees alot (huge number) of cover stops above the highs of yesterday...... I thought we might be going down but these numerous stops built up above the 'high of day' yesterday and I feel these stops WILL get triggered today at some point, So please play it carefully today.

if these stops get hit (i now feel they will seeing a / h market activity) we will likely go higher. Play it safe today....use stops....and I will see you opening bell.

:)

sentiment, the tape, the fed: the three important ingredients to a market trend. we have ALL three in the bull camp, big time.

and why not add in the rapidly improving fundamentals?

I-MAFIA indicating of a possible rally tomorrow

http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com/news/i-mafia/

now I am cautious because it has been right many times.

listening to the market:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAUPV:$NADNV&...

want to know what the BIG BOYS are doing??

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qloHA747hE

Mchugh 5 Nov.......

The latest Thursday Market Update, issue no. 1201, November 5ht, 2009, is available at www.technicalindicatorindex.com To access this report, simply log in and click on the Daily button.

For those of you with busy schedules, here is an executive summary:

The Industrials jumped 203.82 points Thursday, closing at 10,005.96. NYSE volume was lower on the rally at 86 percent of its 10 day average. That may be one of the best clues as to what is going on here. Rallies are occurring on declining volume and declines are arriving on rising volume. That is a bearish formula and one we would expect to see around tops. Half of the trading days the past few weeks have seen moves above 100 points. Increased volatility, even large up days, is also something common around significant tops. Upside volume led at 86 percent, with advancing issues at 83 percent, with upside points at 93 percent. Thursday was not a 90 percent up day, which would have been bullish. S&P 500 Demand Power rose 11 points to 387, while Supply Pressure fell 9 points to 398, telling us the rally was strong with minor short-covering. The 15, 30 and 60 minute Full Stochastics are overbought. Our key trend-finder indicators moved to new buy signals. These short-term indicators suggest momentum is bullish enough to see another 2 percent or greater move on the upside.

Study the chart on page 11 in Thursday newsletter at www.technicalindicatorindex.com . This shows that in 2007, we saw a decisive break below a Rising Bearish Wedge similar to patterns we see now, then a sharp rally followed that reached and crawled along the bottom boundary of that Rising Bearish Wedge. In fact, new highs were reached simply by crawling along this bottom boundary's rising slope. Within two weeks of the decisive break below the bottom boundary, and after the new highs, a stock market plunge kicked off. So a strong rally here, even to new highs for the rally from March 2009, is not necessarily bullish, as we saw in 2007.

After the October 21st, 2009 top of 10,119.47 in the Industrials, prices fell 440.52 points to Monday, November 2nd's bottom at 9,678.95. To this point, we still can label this recent decline as the first leg down of wave (C ) down. The rally since November 2nd has retraced 75 percent of that two week decline. If the top wave count is correct, that

(C ) down has started, prices need to drop from here. If prices rise above the October 21st highs, then it is likely that the alternate labeling is occurring, where wave a-up topped on October 21st, and wave b-down bottomed on November 2nd, two thirds of an a-up, b-down, c-up for (E) up to conclude C-up and (B) up. If the alternate is occurring, we are now in c-up and it could spike sharply higher, perhaps getting close to the upside targets from a Bullish Head & Shoulders pattern shown on page 9. The decisive breaks below the bottom boundary lines of Rising Bearish Wedges for the Industrials, S&P 500, and NDX suggest a major top is occurring now, even if new highs are reached. The Ascending Expanding Bearish Wedge in the S&P 500 allows for either scenario.

Gold hit another new all-time high Thursday, November 5th. Patterns suggest Gold is heading for 1350ish. We continue to hold a significant position of Gold in our Conservative Investment Portfolio.

The McClellan Oscillator rose to negative - 46.71 Thursday. The Summation Index fell to positive + 2,136.79. The Demand Power/Supply Pressure indicators triggered an enter short positions signal Monday, October 26th, and remain there Thursday. NYSE New Highs rose to 90, with New Lows at 3. We believe markets are setting themselves up for another series of Hindenburg Omens. Getting one would be a strong sell signal and warning catastrophic wave (C ) down was dead ahead, or had started. If a wave

(C ) plunge occurs without a Hindenburg Omen, it will be an anomaly, the first time that has occurred in the last 25 years. A slow relentless decline could occur without an H.O.

The percent of DJIA stocks above their 30 day moving average rose to 63.33 from 43.33. The percent above 10 day rose to 73.33 from 23.33. The percent above 5 day rose to 96.67 from 36.67. The NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator improved to negative -374.3, remaining on a "sell" signal from October 26th, when it fell below the negative - 120.00 threshold for a new "sell."

Our three Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators (other than the Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator) generated a new "buy" signal Thursday.

The NASDAQ 100 rose 40.42 points Thursday, closing at 1,721.09. Our NDX key trend-finder indicators generated a new "buy" signal Thursday. The Russell 2000 rose 18.03 points Thursday, closing at 581.15. The HUI Amex Gold Bugs Index rose 2.91 points Thursday, closing at 433.03. December Gold rose to 1089.3, another new all-time high. Silver was flat at 17.41, while December Oil fell to 79.73. The Dollar fell 0.04 to 75.72. Bonds were flat at 118^07. The VIX fell 2.29 to 25.43.

Shorting should only be done with funds that are speculative and the investor is willing to accept a substantial loss on. That is because the PPT is very active at this time.

thanks!

"new buy signal thursday" issued by his three blue chip trend finders.

yeee ... haaa ... !!! :)))

just another confirmation of what ms. market is screaming but i do like it.

How old are you?

re: If the alternate is occurring, we are now in c-up and it could spike sharply higher, perhaps getting close to the upside targets from a Bullish Head & Shoulders pattern shown on page 9.

Do you know what his upside target is on page 9?
just curious, thanks....

The last paragraph is the only one that made sense to me:-)

Thanks for posting.

Well one my little cheat sheet for you all then I am off to run some errands.

I watch the trannies closely (ummmm Ok not those sort of trannies) and I must say the transports chart is VERY intresting. (the second chart below)


1) DJIA Chart

http://s657.photobucket.com/albums/uu293/bigelk...


2) Trannies Chart (VERY INTRESTING)

http://s657.photobucket.com/albums/uu293/bigelk...

Good stuff, thanks jesterx!

hey no probs my friend. Anytime!!

With compliments and approval by Joe 8888

S&P 500 PE Ratio!

http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder...

This is what we're gonna do to this stupid rally....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_oBjinZQ7k

god I miss the 80's music... they just don't make good rock and metal like they did back then.

edit: hmm wonder how they got that one by the filters on youtube lol... definitely not pg rated.

another good one is here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xM-BGoTTwqc

can't have those fat cats getting sick.. they've got money to make! ... just stupid.

Since so many people appear to be ready or actively trading currencies, I thought I might make a contribution. I've been reading Currency Trader Magazine online. available at
currencytradermag.com You'll all like the price:free The same people have Futuresandoptiontrader.com which is a free mag. devoted to ???

Thanks Wex...i've yet to trade currencies.

If you gonna trade currency , I would pay the fee to boris at anti -sopitalist he is very very good and the fee is not a lot.

borisc.blogspot.com lots of good stuff from him.

Thanks.

You are well come he was one of the few to call the top and the bottom.

Thanks loaf..I'll goggle him.

Hmmm..nothing comes up for forex?

just google anti sopitalist .....he is good

nope..no joy?
http://www.google.com/#hl=en&q=anti+-sopitalist...

Don't you hate it when you forecast something that actually plays out, but you don't follow your own forcast? I went short today at 1062... thinking that tomorrow it will roll over. But, I looked back at my weekend post (http://reddragonleo.com/2009/11/01/weekend-upda...) and I clearly said that it would go to 1073-1076 area before going back down.

Of course I didn't listen to myself, and I'm now stuck in this trade... which I'll look too get out of tomorrow. Hopefully with little damage. We all know the jobs numbers tomorrow are manufactured to met expectations. Couple that with light volume, and you have your UP day again tomorrow.

Arrrgh...

Good luck man...keep us posted and I'll be rooting for you!

ANNA don't know if you saw the post Royal did with a cameo mention of your new blog what a HOOOOOOT

http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/2009/11/the-f...

I think ES is getting screwed...that M6 ain't an M6

That's too funny... especially Mike's car. ROTF...

ROTFLMAO

He's definitely got Mike V's number.

SJ, glad you guys got to see it make sure anna gets a link for it her car is the bomb LOL

That's funny...Royal with Cheese..makes me remember how much I disliked Paris-)

Anna time for a new topic,god i hate the Yankees

Bite your tail!

Back to trading...

Keep an eye on WNR and ENER tomorrow. I posted this today morning-

"If any one is willing to take some risk, try ITM calls on ENER and WNR for possible pre-earnings run up. Earnings are on Monday pre-market, both have a high short interest ( ENER 33% and WNR 55%) and are trading near 52 week lows. The shorts might cover before earnings on Monday and they both might be up on Friday. On WNR, I am hoping for a double bottom at 4.5-5.0, which was the low in Oct (24th-29th) 2008. I would close the trade before EOD friday"


SUN announced results AH and they were not good, so that might put some downward pressure on WNR tomorrow

I am wondering how many of you trade for a living. I am assuming most here have a day job :-)

i'm a senior - college student!
$2-300 per day has been my goal since october and worked out SO much better than trying to make big bucks at once

wow! I wish you all the best my friend :-)

Used to have a job (lost it back in February), so I've spent the last 7 months trying to figure this trading thing out. Learned a lot since, but nowhere near the level most of you guys are at.

Was it a blessing in disguise? Sometimes it very well is?

I was going to ask, when you scalp do you mostly stick to indexes, or do you have a list of stocks you look at too? Thanks!

Stocks only...I have 8 screens up and running and look for the proper victim. I also have about 60 stocks segregated in a watch list based on industry sector..and I often at times have to breeze through them to find a candidate. Sometimes I come up empty.

The only real problem I have is not taking a trade and watching it move up! I need to work on this part of my strategy:-)

Haha, I hear you, the trades I take usually go against me and then the ones I sit out usually would have made my money, ah well, it's definately still a work in progress. Dang though, 8 screens, that's impressive!

Losing the job was absolutely a blessing in disguise, I hated what I was doing, and getting let go let me do some of the things I wanted to do, spent a decent amount of time traveling since I've lost the job. I've probably spent more time studying and reading about trading than anything I studied when I was in college, lol, I'm still working on picking good stocks to trade, a bit overwhelming at times, and definately need to work on my entry and exit strategies.

Trading is tough and emotional. One thing I have learned in my limited trading experience (2 years) is one needs to be disciplined, not over trade and have lots of patience.

Haha, you ain't kidding, I used to trade based on "hope and emotion" and quickly realized that it doesn't work like that, market doesn't care. Thankfully I kept my trades and losses small and learned real fast to keep emotion out of it. Don't get me wrong, this stuff is exciting, as long as there is a plan. Especially like you say flyboy, limit the losses and live to fight another day.

Yes, excellent! And don't be afraid to take a loss before it gets out of hand!

I try to....it's all I have left....weeping as I walk away.

I retired at 44, six years ago.

I started trading in 2007. Still in the learning phase and I am 32 years young... still a long way to go.

I was running numbers in my head on my 45 min drive home in traffic tonite... if I could make about 200 bucks a day trading... I'd make the same amount I do at my day job lol.

edit: ignoring taxes and such that is.

Yep,,,$400 /day sitting your your jammies makes for a nice ride:-)...I try to avg this,

well, after blindly following Mole's advice on Mar 10 spy puts... my account is down to about that much total lol lost my shirt on that... but I learned a lesson the hard way... with Anna's help I've managed to figure out things a lot better... and am working my way back up! I think I've learned more from her in the last 3 months than I did following the ES blog in 9 months before that.

edit: I should say it wasn't really mole's advice but that was the trade he was doing so I followed it...

I predominately scalp based off of indicators that are pretty good.

Send me your email address and I'll send you my scheme...watch it for a few days and see if its something that will work for you. We can even chat during the day and I'll walk you through a few trades..

r1200gsa1@gmail.com

I started trading since 2007. Still in the learning phase and I am 32 years young... still a long way to go.

maybe someday.. but for now my day job is IT work for a real estate company that I believe is going to go belly up by 2011 or 2012 lol

LOL :-)

Is your company listed in the stock exchange? Just Kidding

if we were still publicly traded I'd tell ya to short the ever living hell out of us.... we used to be Cendant (who owned NRT) now we're Realogy... still own NRT.. .but we have Coldwell Banker, Sothebys, Century 21 and one other... I can never remember it...

Owned by Apollo (lewis black's group or whatever his name is) ... he bought us for 6.6 billion in 2006... just as the market was going in the crapper... they've cut our staff by over 50% .. and yet the company is still losing money (15 million in Q2.. waiting on Q3 numbers yet), lost 1.9 billion in 08. In March we had a debt to earnings ratio of 23 to 1... I'm keeping my eye out for IT jobs daily lol.

Funny...and sad! Cendant is based in NJ What do you expect?

I've done a few real estate deals since retiring...took raw land through the development stages and then pawned it off on Lennar and Pulte...they were so hungry for land back in 04-05...Glad I finished before 07!

hey.. with all the layoffs.. they still had enough money to remodel the corp hdqtrs in NJ and install 12 flat plasma tv's in the lounge there ... and to give the execs all kinds of bonuses... I've heard that Richard Smith the CEO got a 9 million bonus last year (might have been in 07) ... the guy couldn't run an lemonade stand profitably.

GREED!

Just like their neighbor CIT run by another ex GS overpaid douche!

Wow! looks ugly! I wish you good luck my friend. Hope you dont have to find another job :-)

well, if I get laid off... Anna will let me toss my sleeping bag out in her sanctuary and I can sleep among the wild animals she feeds lol

LOL :-)

UUP insider trading...I knew it:-)

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/158...

it happens daily... 200,000+ volume late in the day before it's stopped? there's a reason GS makes 100 million a day and basically never loses money on any given day in the market. They know what's coming before everyone else , simple as that.

Bri..where are u located?

Pra...Where are u located?

I need to know this stuff to really open up my heart:-)

I'm in Minneapolis.... Minnesnowta... land of 10,000 months of winter...

Brrrrrrrrrrrrr. Use to fly into there often..

I hope you didn't overfly the airport by 150 miles lol

LOL...know idea how that could of happened...oh well, two openings.

I am located in Philly :-)

rough series for ya... I was pulling for the phillies.. simply because it annoys me when teams can basically just buy the championship with a 250 million dollar salary. anyway... bleh

:-)

Oh..so very sorry about last night...LOL!

Love Philly, do my best drinking at the Artful Dodger!

Annamall.......thanks for starting your own blog.i googled you to find you here when I saw you disappeared from other blogs I used to follow you on.(No Im NOT a stalker!) Anyhow, I find you guys and gals very valuable to a newbie wantabee trader and hope that Im welcome here - hope to get an avatar soon!

My comment is the 1000th. woohoooooooooo :-)

ding ding ding ding you won a private analysis with me and a cup of coffee ;))))

Anna check my post to you in case you miss it, Royal with cheese did a blog mention of you that is great.

cool :-)

No decaf allowed heheheh :)

you give this guy caffeine and he'll be bouncing off the walls lol.. Great work Pra... you've been busy as heck lately!

My job is super busy some days and that is why you dont see me posting very often certain days :-)

I hate decaf :-)

OK guys and gals,

This is what I have so far on PCLN-

60% put spread (Nov 165/145, ROR 250%) and 40% call spread (Nov 175/195, ROR 275%).

They report Monday AH. It could go either way and I am kind of slightly bearish. Let me know what you all think.

Hi pramood. I don't know what prices you entered those spreads, but if you were to do them at today's closing prices (assuming midpoints), I do not like that trade at all. Let's look at it:
buy the 165/145 put spread for 5.40 debit
buy the 175/195 call spread for 4.65 debit
total cost = 10.05 debit

at expiration PCLN would have to be below 154.95 or above 185.05 to make money. In other words you would lose money with the stock anywhere between 154.95 - 185.05.

That would scare me to death!

Hi Pedro,

I have not purchased those spreads yet. I will probably purchase them during the last hour of trading on Monday because the premium might decrease on Monday. You are right about the price movement, we need at least 10% move to make money on those spread and anything less than that, you may lose money. Based on the past earnings performance, PCLN usually moves 10-20% after earnings and that is why I am interested in this trade.

GL :-)

Please be careful with a trade like that with such a frightening risk/reward ratio. I would warn any newbies here not to do it!

I typically do not make earnings plays, although thanks to a suggestion from Fujisan, I got a monster home run with an iron condor on GOOG earnings at Oct OPEX.

I am bearish on PCLN and would much prefer the following trade:

Dec 150/135 put spread for 2.85 debit
risk 2.85 for potential 12.15 reward

Admittedly this a very bearish trade since the spread is way out of the money.

Hi Pedro,

The reason I do NOT do way OTM put spread is say if PCLN drops less than 10% after earnings, 150/135 will not make you as much money 165/145. Assuming it drops only 5%, the 165 will not lose as much premium as 150. Did you see how the MM's killed the premiums on ISRG options after earnings? I did the december spread because the premiums on Nov were high. ISRG dropped about 8-10% (intraday low of 240) after earnings and still the decemeber 220 and 230 put strikes were trading at 30-50% discount to the theoretical value. MA was another example. If you are doing a condor, Nov would be the best choice. So with PCLN, I would do 60% Nov 165/145 put spread and 40% Nov 175/195 call spread. On Monday, I am hoping the premiums on 145 put strike and 195 call strike go much higher than 165 put and 175 call strike so that the net debit will decrease. JMHO