Subscribe to Hot Option Babe Subscribe to Hot Option Babe's comments
Nov
04

Wednesday total Twisting Whiplash

Posted by . Comments.

whiplash-wine-market

Hi everyone, well we all knew that this would be a highly volatile day and here’s hoping each and everyone of you made some great coin :)

I did really well and also played FX rather well today too, which is always allot of fun. I am now short the EUR/USD expecting a nice bounce on the dollar tomorrow.  I also added WFMI 31/27 November put spread for earnings tonight.

Bought WFMI to open 31 put
Sell to open WFMI 27 put = Debit of 1.01
Possible ROI is 2.99 :)

Here is a chart on SPY, I feel we could retrace to 1038 and even 1025 is possible, before going higher

Great day everyone you did awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!

Great job Pra for finding the trade while I was so busy :)

spy

AH looks like WFMI is selling off yeaaaahhhhhhhhh

This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 4th, 2009 at 9:20 pm by . Filed under: Uncategorized. Tagged as: . You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • *********** NEW POST **************

    """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""
  • Good morning all!

    Looked through a lot of charts across the sectors:

    X, AKS appears to be in wave 4 or has completed an a-b-c correction. So the next thing I am watching for is either wave 5 or some form of short squeeze rally
  • Good morning,

    Covered my EURUSD short @ 1.482

    It's my b'day I am a big guy now moving Good by 20s hello 30s
  • AS2009
    Happy b'day TW :)
  • Thank you AS
  • Happy B'Day my friend! Have a GRRRRRRREEEAAAAAAAAT day.
  • Thank you Pramoodbhai.
  • Happy Birthday to you Happy Birthday to you, you are a hot trader and we love you too!
    (singing)
  • Ahh you are taking all the thought from my mind lol all those pages which you put together n coming soon are still work-in-process for me because of stupid blogspot.

    I need to roll over to wordpress soon :D
  • Thank you my sexy e-girlfriend ;-)
  • hehehe :)
  • Happy Birthday! You are nowhere close to a seismic decade shift!
  • Thanks Leisa
  • humble1 (tm)
    you can listen to the bear rants or you can listen to the market:

    http://twitpic.com/oc4q1

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYMO&p=D&yr...
  • humble1 (tm)
    fwiw: my best guess for today is that we chop higher and maybe even park it above SPX 1060. i have seen much discussion of a developing H&S on the SPX hourly/daily.

    methinks ms. market will give folks enough time between 1060 and 1080 to set maxshort positions right into friday's close. that would make the weekend interesting.

    ;)-
  • Romaitas
    Hey Pra... Glad you went in on Whole Foods. Buy me a lobster tail?
  • Some probabilities on HANS earnings-

    I looked at all the earnings since 2001. HANS was never up after earnings in all the four quarters in any given year. So far in 2009, it went up during the previous three earnings. What are the odds that it will go up this quarter?

    http://busystock.com/i.php?s=hans

    So odds favor a down move after earnings tomorrow. Lets see what Anna has to say.
  • flyboy08
    Unfortunately, a roll of the dice in this market....miss on the top, beat on the bottom, it'll run.
  • If any one is willing to take some risk, try ITM calls on ENER and WNR for possible pre-earnings run up. Earnings are on Monday pre-market, both have a high short interest ( ENER 33% and WNR 55%) and are trading near 52 week lows. The shorts might cover before earnings on Monday and they both might be up on Friday. I would close the trade before EOD friday.
  • suzor
    Hi Pra, What do you consider a high level of short interest ? Or does it just depend on the stock ?
  • Hi suzor,

    For a stock with more than 100 million outstanding shares, 8-10% short interest is my cut off. For stocks with less than 100 million outstanding shares, I look for at least 15-20% short interest.
  • suzor
    Thanks
  • Guest
    My pleasure :-)
  • HANS earnings tomorrow AH. 10% short interest. Appears coiled and due for a big move?-

    http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=hans&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

    Will wait to see what Anna has to say.
  • flyboy08
    Your relentless...I like you:-)..how certain are you that the short interest # off of Fin is up to date? I've seen some stale numbers from them over the years.
  • This site has it as 8.2%

    http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=hans&submit=Sho...

    This site has it as approx 7.8% (6.95 million/90 million) as of 10/15/2009

    http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortinterest...
  • flyboy08
    Hans, like Green mountain scare me...they both "should" be under $20 IMHO!


    GO YANKS!
  • The main thing that has been holding up HANS so far is the buyout by KO speculation/ rumors
  • Guest
    I would say give or take 10%

    :-)
  • pooch
    Thats Ackerman
  • pooch
    You people should read Rick Ackemans blog tonight.It concerns the fallout on the CIT bankrupcy
  • Brian_mk
    CIT will definitely have a huge impact on business lending.. unless someone else steps in quickly. However, I have a feeling the barrel is rapidly approaching the niagra falls.... I think 2010 is going to be one very rough year for the US and possibly other countries.
  • flyboy08
    Link it.
  • Brian_mk
  • flyboy08
    What took you..LOL..thanks.
  • Brian_mk
    I had to google it again! sheesh lol
  • flyboy08
    And they financed untold payrolls too. Certain to see some immediate fallout from this failure.
  • Brian_mk
    ya... I see CA is now stealing 10% from every worker to help pay for their budget problems. I can see a massive lawsuit coming over that one.

    The only way out of this entire mess is massive bankruptcies and massive debt liquidation.. unfortunately that will probably mean big time deflation and unemployment for a while. I saw somewhere that there's 450+ trillion in derivatives out there ... that's so insane it's not even comprehensible.
  • pooch
    damn we are finally red and bleeding tonight,have not seen futures do that this early for a month(could change in a heartbeat).That FOMC message said to me that the economy is in the dumps,res. Real Estate,Com. Real Estate,unemployment,have to keep rates low cause nothing has worked yet,don't know how anyone got a positive outta this.Shoot all you have to do is watch the rut2
    C
  • springheel_jack
    Small move so far. Might get bigger though. USD is strengthening sharply to confirm.
  • Brian_mk
    tomorrow could be interesting then...
  • springheel_jack
    One way or the other...
  • Brian_mk
    ya I was too busy at work today to do what I told myself I was going to do a while back...I was in the camp of getting another bounce to 1045-1060 area.. and I was planning to just buy some Dec or Jan SPY puts and ride this sucker down... oh well.. hopefully we get one last bounce so I can load up.
  • ibc
    Anna, Pramod,

    Very good call on WFMI. Would you have any opinion on shippers? BDI moved up from 26k to 33K but these suckers are just lying low. what gives?
  • Hi ibc,

    I have traded both EXM and DRYS, primarily using options in the past but not anymore. They hardly move most of the days and then suddenly spike, which is only one or two days. Basically, you lose time value on your options unless you can time them properly, which is very difficult to do IMHO.
  • ibc
    got it. Anything that you are playing as a high probability trade? WFMI was a very good call.
  • Guest
    If you are willing to take some risk, try ITM calls on ENER and WNR for possible pre-earnings run up. Earnings are on Monday pre-market, both have a high short interest ( ENER 33% and WNR 55%) and are trading near 52 week lows. The shorts might cover before earnings on Monday and they both might be up on Friday. I would close the trade before EOD friday.

    Thank you and GL :-)
  • ibc
    thanks. I don't like "perma" anything. i am just tying to avoid being a PIG.
  • springheel_jack
    Bull and bear should just be a matter of timing really.
  • ibc
    Agree.

    But somehow I mange to dodge both of them and catch the pig.
  • springheel_jack
    I'm sure you've heard the one about the bacon and eggs breakfast. The chicken's involved, but the pig's committed. Personally I think the chicken is just maintaining a sensible distance.
  • Nice call on WFMI Anna! I completely forgot about it and didnt get in any spread sadly, but I'm glad you are making money off it!
  • ibc
    if i may, who is MV?
  • flyboy08
    A fellow blogger/poster permabull who has a very unique way of expressing himself:-)
  • springheel_jack
    Mike Vadon. Very snarky permabull. On a quest to get banned from every decent blog on the web, or at least he was. He and I don't get along at all as I have made fun of him unmercifully. I remember his call for AAPL to go to 1000 with particular affection.

    He turned up at DavidDT's blog tonight and posted there. If he's snarky there, David won't be as patient as Tim was. It took him an age of foul behaviour to get banned from SOH.
  • Blowed_UP
    Great blog Anna, thank you for sharing your insight! TA aside, I would be a little nervous going long before the unemployment numbers, anyone else share this fear?
    Anyone looking to short gold? I bought some december puts on the GDX yesterday (little early) added more today. That's all I got.....thanks again!
  • Hey Blowed_up (great handle)

    I am waiting for those myself, and short EUR/USD for now... Welcome and so glad to have you join us :)
  • Blowed_UP
    Glad to be here...thanks for the welcome. What are the odds that Goldman revises their
    unemployment forecast for October tomorrow!? Or do we magically sneak in with %9.9 @ 175,000....I'm thinking Obama was getting us ready for a %10 smack down with his press conference on Monday, but maybe I'm reading too much into it.
  • Alright folks. Not a whole lot new, but a little diddy on IV if you are interested...

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=12421#disqus_thread

    Skål!
  • flyboy08
    What does the comment in the Vic chart mean?

    3 buys.....
  • springheel_jack
    3 bollinger band buy signals on vix indicating an upward reversal in equities I think. Another was triggered today.

    It has been a good signal as long as the rally has lasted. The question then is whether the rally has peaked or not?
  • flyboy08
    Thanks!

    I saw MV called for a down day tomorrow....Am I dreaming....LOL!!!!!!!!Pinch me:-)
  • springheel_jack
    Yes, that was surreal. :-D
  • flyboy08
    May I ask where are you located ?
  • springheel_jack
    UK
  • flyboy08
    Oh wow, I would have never guessed that.
  • springheel_jack
    Long line of expats. I grew up in Hong Kong mainly. :-)
  • flyboy08
    UK not to shabby of a place to hang ones hat. I like to visit often when it presents itself.
  • springheel_jack
    I still haven't got used to the weather, and the politicians really are some of the dimmest in the western world. I like it though, I'm hoping it doesn't go downhill badly over the next few years. The current lot of clowns should be out of power soon at least.

    Where do you live flyboy?
  • flyboy08
    Split my time between NYC and upstate NY (only 80 miles from our city place). Spend more time upstate since I left my profession. Easier to trade when I can take a breather and walk around the house in lieu of going down an elevator:-)...at least that's what I tell the wife:-)
  • Romaitas
    Where upstate? I split time between greenpoint/stamford (ny)
  • flyboy08
    We have a place on Orange Lake in Walden NY.
  • springheel_jack
    Never been to NY. I lived in California for a couple of years. Always loved the US.

    I like spending time out of the city as well. I used to live in London but I wouldn't go back now.
  • flyboy08
    Last time I was in London (two years ago), I was on a motorcycle,,,lasted a day and then bee lined it up to Bath! We like London for the shows and history, but I dont like driving there!
  • springheel_jack
    Driving in London is bad on a good day. On a bad day it is soul destroying.

    Bath is lovely. I went to University near there in Bristol. Always loved Bath. Perfect Georgian city.
  • flyboy08
    Never really enjoyed the local foods, but the best Indian food I've ever eaten was at Eastern Eye in Bath...yum...I can still feel the burn:-) Most folks just visit London and they really miss the beauty of England by not venturing out and about.
  • wex
    Gotta lot of good Indian food here in NYC. Don't know if it's worth an 80 mi. trip though.
  • flyboy08
    HA..We head down to 6th street all the time. Been going to the same jaunt for 20 years now. They treat us like a Rockefeller:-)Then......we slide on over to Venieros for dessert.

    I'm in the city at least 2 night per week...during the winter, much more.
  • springheel_jack
    Not sure local food means anything in the UK really.

    A friend of my mother once had an indian friend over who asked my mother's friend to cook her a traditional english dish. She cooked her some kedgeree, which was a traditional indian dish for quite a while before the english adopted it. LOL
  • Sweet Berk, many thanks :)
  • springheel_jack
    Great post berkshire.
  • flyboy08
    Nice post Berk..It's obvious allot of work went into it for our benefit!
  • Guest
    If anyone is willing to take a small risk, try ITM calls on ENER and WNR for possible pre-earnings run up. Earnings are on Monday pre market, both have a high short interest ( ENER 33% and WNR 55%) and are trading near 52 week lows. The shorts might cover before earnings on Monday and they both might be up on Friday. I would close the trade before EOD friday.
  • Thanks Kemal. Is your short term target on BAC 16.20? It acted as a support on 02 Sep 2009 and 01 Oct 2009. 16.20 was also the resistance on 28 Nov 2008. I hope it goes to 14.2 again so that I can pick some Dec calls.

    TIA
  • flyboy08
    I believe kemal posted 17.50 earlier today.
  • I would not wait until 17.50. My exit target would be 16.2, which is 10% from here. For BAC to go to 17.5, which is 20% from current levels, the S&P needs to go above 1100. Moreover, BAC earnings are out already, which pretty much eliminates a huge move.

    JMHO
  • flyboy08
    Watch the gap:-)
  • flyboy08
    The noise is back,,,ARGHHHHHHHHHH...My finger slipped and I found myself on two other sites calling for SPX 950 by mid November! While I appreciate both sides of the thought process, I'm finding these noises are causing indecision within my own mind!

    I need to filter out this noise and as a dedicated member of this fine site, I tend to lean in that direction, but that noise! All that noise:-(
  • Let me guess their bearish only sites?? LOL
    Just keep an open mind, that's one of the reasons I started this blog is have have both sides of the marketplace! That way you can make $ both ways, not dig your heels in and say I am bull or I am a bear and this my bias no matter what.

    I don't care which way it goes as long as "we" make $$$$$$ :)
  • flyboy08
    I hear ya gorgeous! I scalp for the most part, so either way works for me, but I would like to start playing the SPY/SPX and having a better feel for the direction helps in that respects:-)
  • That's my favorite is scalping the SPY's :)
  • flyboy08
    I'm a virgin in the SPY! I would like to change this:-)
  • May I assist ??? heheheh
  • flyboy08
    You have a way of making me blush:-)...and yes, I would like to be led down that road by no other than you:-)
  • Brian_mk
    would you 2 get a room already? lol
  • flyboy08
    You think too small...were getting a yacht!
  • Brian_mk
    ....
  • hehehe :)
  • springheel_jack
    The trends and patterns picture is extremely ambiguous after the closes on SPX and Vix today in particular.

    Kemal did say this would happen. Check these two charts out though:

    Vix:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...

    SPX:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...

    Both look like trendline breaks with failed retests today. I understand where the bears are coming from, even if I don't share their confidence.
  • flyboy08
    Thanks Jack..so by your SPX chart, we could go either way...you're hoping north for the interim?
blog comments powered by Disqus