Hi Hobstas

Good morning! Well it looks like we are going to have a lower open, I mentioned yesterday that we would retest 1088 /ES and it's possible that we gap over that at the open and could see some real selling come in.  I have a print to 107.31 that might fill today even though that's a ways off it's possible to get that filled

I loaded up on SPY put spreads @ the close yesterday after hours 110/105 august, why that because 107.31 is nicely in the money on the long puts and not close to the 105's. I paid a debit of 1.36 so I can make double in one day or 100% w/little risk!    That's how you play options with low risk high return.

I also added FSLR shorts to the Lounge before the close a put spread. Never do straight options before earnings you will getting an I.V crush that will suck the $ out of your option whether your right or not! Now the small movers not as much, but you always need to check the IV on a option before buying. As with anything you want to buy low IV sell High IV. So hence on earnings I do spreads.........SELL them and BUY them :)

 For now that's it I will watch for a gap over 1088 then I feel fairly sure we get more down side !!

Congrats Bears! 

As I've been expecting for a few days now, thirty year treasuries have now broken down through the strong rising support trendline that has supported the strong bond rally since the beginning of April:

More surprisingly, gold is threatening the lower trendline of the rising channel that has contained gold's rise for almost two years now. That trendline looks likely to break, but gold has hit an important support level, and has at least paused there for the moment:

I've been expecting the rising support trendline on long treasuries to break, and it is one of the last of the directional indicators that I watch to concede and turn green. We had a Dow Theory buy signal on Monday as well of course, and all I'm really still waiting for to complete the bullish picture is for the 13 34 EMAs on the SPX weekly to recross to change that bearish cross signal into a strong bullish cross signal.  

In the short term though, we may have seen an interim top on equities. ES broke down from the rising wedge of recent days yesterday and I've been watching to see if the rising wedge would turn out to be a diagonal slice of a previously unrevealed rising channel. The lower trendline of that theoretical rising channel was hit overnight and has held so far. If we see a break below 1108 ES today, then the rising wedge target is 1084.5 ES:

$NYMO has hit a overbought level that often precedes an equities retracement, which backs up the idea that SPX may have hit a short term peak here. The signals are mixed though, and there are some indications that we may need to go a little higher before putting in the next interim top: